For draft fans, a potential clash of first pick candidates in the title game in an absolute dream scenario. It’s not often that you have the projected number one pick in the Final Four, much less a scenario where the top pick remains uncertain and the top two candidates have a great chance of squaring off against one another in the title game. It’s a scouting smorgasbord as Indianapolis will feature seven likely first rounders with two Wisconsin Badgers (Sam Dekker and Frank Kaminsky), three Duke Blue Devils (Jahlil Okafor, Justise Winslow and Tyus Jones) and four Kentucky Wildcats (Karl-Anthony Towns, Trey Lyles, Willie Cauley-Stein, and Devin Booker) plus a number of second round possibilities (Travis Trice, Brandon Dawson, Harrison Twins, Nigel Hayes). With the Final Four just a day away, here’s a look at whose stock is rising and falling after the second weekend of the tournament.
Rising
Sam Dekker 6-9 220 SF Wisconsin Jr.
No one’s stock made a more dramatic spike than Dekker’s over the Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight games. The Wisconsin junior was absolutely sensational in the Badgers win over Arizona coming up with numerous clutch shots down the stretch, many of which were three pointers. He was already on the rise coming into the Elite Eight game with a solid showing in the opening rounds. His performance on the big stage in Los Angeles at Staples Center has helped erase a somewhat disappointing season in many scout’s eyes and put him firmly back in the mid first round picture. He severely outplayed Stanley Johnson, a player who has been considered a possible top 5 pick by scouts for much of the season. It’s not out of the question that Dekker, with a positive Indy showing, could leapfrog Johnson on draft boards and find a spot in the lottery on draft night.
Karl-Anthony Towns 7-0 250 C Kentucky Fr.
Towns play at the end of the Elite Eight, Notre Dame game was exactly what scouts were hoping to see from him. When the Wildcat’s backs were against the wall and their season was on the line, it was Towns who rose to the challenge, making a number of big plays to help Kentucky pull out the victory. He finished with a season high 25 points in 25 minutes, including nine of the team’s final nineteen and a key basket with a minute left that tied that game. Towns has struggled to prove himself as a post player throughout his freshman season, but against Notre Dame, he converted a number of impressive back to the basket post moves. He showed the will of a champion in a game that easily could have slipped away from Kentucky and ruined their bid for perfection. Towns was our projected top overall pick going into the season despite Okafor being the prohibitive favorite. He’s been first on our Big Board since the tournament began and reclaims the top spot on the mock once again after such an impressive performance in Kentucky’s biggest game to date.
Justise Winslow 6-6 229 SG/SF Duke Fr.
A case could be made that Justise Winslow has as much upside as anyone in this year’s draft. While he’s not seen as the sure bet of the two bigs: Jahlil Okafor and Towns, his athleticism is elite and the concept that wings are a dime a dozen doesn’t seem to apply any longer. Winslow developed a reputation for not bringing consistent effort while in high school, but that did not seem to be the case in his freshman season at Duke. Most freshmen go through ups and downs and while Winslow had his share, he has been at his best at the most important time. Winslow and not Okafor was Duke’s brightest star over the second weekend of NCAA tourney action and he has gained steam as a likely top 5 pick, who could even climb further if he has a big performance in Indy. While he doesn’t appear to possess the same swagger and leadership as James Harden, he possesses some of the same attributes and scoring qualities. Winslow’s ability to make adjustments and finish plays while attacking the basket at 100 miles per hour is truly special. His shooting appears to have improved, and his effort and consistency has been really improved on a game to game basis. Winslow has a chance to be a standout at both ends of the floor at the NBA level, and he’s become a huge wildcard at the top of the draft.
Justin Jackson 6-7 195 SF North Carolina Fr.
Jackson took a complimentary role for much of his freshman season. However in the biggest game of the year, a surprisingly close finish against Wisconsin in the Sweet Sixteen, Jackson was the player who emerged as the Tar Heel’s late game, go-to player. He knocked down an impressive three to keep the game close, and despite the Badgers exerting their will and taking over in the closing minutes, Jackson proved clutch in defeat. He obviously needs to get stronger and continue to develop as an offensive player, but there is plenty of reason to be optimistic about his NBA outlook heading into next season. He has announced that he will return to Chapel Hill for his sophomore year.
Travis Trice 6-1 180 PG Michigan St. Sr.
With Michigan State making a surprise run to the Final Four, no Spartan player’s stock has received a bigger boost than Trice’s. He came into the tourney as a borderline draft pick, and now has climbed to a possible high to mid second rounder who stands a great chance to be selected. He has embraced the role of go to scorer and leader and his late game heroics certainly have scouts taking notice. He has made a number of ISO plays with late game jumpshots to knock out opponents, and he’s also flashed some great finishing ability at the rim. He’s a point guard with both solid decision making and leadership. The one area of his game that needs work is on defense, but he’s likely insured a spot in the draft and could continue to climb if he continues exceeding expectations.
Zach Auguste 6-10 242 PF Notre Dame Jr.
Auguste had a standout performance in Norte Dame’s near upset of Kentucky in the Elite Eight. He was facing an incredibly talented Kentucky frontcourt, yet somehow had his arguably his best performance of the season, finishing with 20 and 9 on 10-13 shooting. He not only made a number of great plays, but showed a lot of emotion to lift his teammates. He’s considered a possible 2nd rounder if he were to enter to draft as there are still aspects of his game that need work, including his defense and consistency.
Norman Powell 6-4 215 SG UCLA Sr.
His tournament performance helping the Bruins surprise everyone and reach the second weekend has his stock on the rise. Powell didn’t have a jump off the boxscore type statistical performance, but was solid in all three tourney games. His elite level strength and athleticism, maturity, and defensive ability make him an intriguing option in the late first round. The Bruin is among a handful of seniors with a good chance to be selected in the first round.
Falling
Jahlil Okafor 6-11 270 C Duke Fr.
Okafor’s praises have been sung throughout the season. He’s worked incredibly hard on his body and his post moves are truly special for a college freshman. Without a doubt he will be an effective, and quite possibly a dominant post player in the league on the offensive end. His defense has even shown some improvement over the past few weeks. And he remains a real possibility for the top overall pick. But for a guy who many were claiming was the sure fire top overall pick early in the season, Okafor’s seen his foothold loosen considerably. He has struggled noticeably down the stretch, making some question his conditioning and ability to dominate similar sized opponents. Facing Gonzaga 7-foot 300 lb bigman Przemek Karnowski, Okafor failed to impose his will against a player with similar size and strength. He averaged just 7.5 points in the games vs Utah and Gonzaga, granted he completely dominated in the tourney’s opening weekend, and is sure to be salivating looking at Michigan State’s frontcourt. He makes things look incredibly easy with his volleyball grip on the ball and Nerf style moves around the paint, but will his lack of explosiveness and foot speed keep him from reaching an elite level? Was he exposed in certain aspects in this game? It depends whom you ask. But his numbers suggest that he was less comfortable playing without a strength advantage.
Stanley Johnson 6-7 245 SF Arizona Fr.
There’s no getting around it, Stanley Johnson was one of the Tourney’s major disappointments. He struggled to play up to the same level that he had through the regular season. Johnson’s lack of fluidity and a smooth offensive game was exposed in the tournament. Against Wisconsin, he struggled to create offense for himself, along with the rest of Arizona’s players. While he doesn’t have a standout skill, he’s got a winner’s mentality and with a lot of desire and intensity he’s sure to be a contributor at the NBA level. But there is less optimism about him being a franchise type guy or top 5 pick after such a disappointing tourney performance.
