This topic contains 7 replies, has 8 voices, and was last updated by  OhCanada- 3 years, 10 months ago.

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  • Posted on: Wed, 06/10/2020 - 9:06pm #1236930

    2quick4u
    Participant

    So in my opinion only 5 teams have more or less options to win the Championship: MIL, LAL, LAC, BOS and HOU.
    I’ll talk a little about each team’s chances to finally give my winner or the one i think has more “probabilities” to Win:

    1. MIL: The Bucks were on pace to win 67 RS games and only 5 teams in history have not won the ring after winning 65+ games and finishing 1st and 3 of those times happened because of a major injury happened. So that means the chances for MIL to Win are very high and if you add that MIL was the best DEF in the league and that Giannis was having the best individual statistical season in NBA history then the odds for error are very very low… But well also inexperience runs against them and not always the best RS team even with the MVP in their ranks wins the Title, if not ask Lebron… Will Giannis and the Bucks start a New Order in the league?
    2. BOS: probably not many people have BOS as a possible contender but this team was on pace to win 56 games which is pretty amazing considering that KW has missed 14 games, GH 19, JB 14 and Smart 11… so that means that this team could have easily won 60+ games if everyone healthy and if you add that J.Tatum was just breaking out and looking like one of the top players in the league, and considering that BOS is one of the most versatile teams with one of the best OFF/DEF balance and also one of the most shooting efficient and one of the most depth then here you have a clear contender not only today but in years to come….Against BOS, i think this “pandemic break” has clearly not benefited BOS as they needed more time to put all the pieces in order and to let their youngs to fully blossom. Next year they can be scary though.
    3. LAC: This is the favourite team to win for many and it is clear why; they have the reigning FMVP, the 2 bests perimetral 2way players in the league, they have an scary defensive versatility and they have absurd depth with a good coach… Against LAC, I think that even though this team looks absolutely scary, they have not had the time to build the chemistry needed in order to win a ring due to PG missing 22games, KL 13, PB 16 and M.Morris just in town so we’ll see if they are able to build it during the playoffs or if they do it in time…
    4. LAL: The other favourite team to win it all and also for good reasons.. this team had developed a great chemistry and was on pace to win 64 games with Lebron looking great and with an AD dominating both ends of the floor and making the Lakers the 3rd best DEF team in the league, also thanks to JM, D.Green and a renewed Howard . Against LAL, I think this team has 4 major concerns: 1st is how will this break affect LJ and AD health as the rest clearly benefits them but how will that much rest? 2nd is the lack of 3PT shooting with LJ being their “best” 3PT shooter, 3rd is this team does not have a “closer” as Lebron is known for not liking big moments and now he doesn’t have a K Irving but an AD that doesn’t like pressure neither and 4th is pressure, as Lebron is probably going to have his “last chance” to win a ring and there will be a lot of pressure on him from media, fans/haters and history… This playoffs are gonna be key for Lebron’s Legacy.
    5. HOU: i think that probably i’ll be the only one giving some chances to HOU but this team has adopted a system that i’ve preached is the best system to win under the current rules in the league, so it’s going to be interesting to watch… A year ago a wrote 2 posts explaining how to “hack” the league and i think someone in HOU must have read it:
    . “Haking the NBA Matrix part I” – https://staging.nbadraft.net/forums/topic/hacking-the-nba-matrix-part-1/
    . “Haking the NBA Matrix part II” – https://staging.nbadraft.net/forums/topic/hacking-the-nba-matrix-part-ii/
    Against HOU, I think that they have not had enough time to develop this system and i also believe that they do not have the right pieces for it, specially in Westbrook whom i believe is very inefficient for this type of system, but still they are the dark horse, specially in this times of chaos…

    Chances of winning Title:
    1. MIL- 70%
    2. LAL – 15%
    3. LAC – 9%
    4. HOU – 5%
    5. BOS – 1%

  • Posted on: Wed, 06/10/2020 - 10:00pm #1236931

    armchairgm
    Participant

    I really think it is a 3 team race between Milwaukee, Lakers ,and Clippers.

  • Posted on: Thu, 06/11/2020 - 7:40am #1236939

    Dazzling Dunks and Basketball Bloopers
    Participant

    Before the shutdown occurred, I would have said it was basically a three team race between the Bucks, Lakers and Clippers. Maybe, I’d give the Celtics an outside chance of upsetting the Bucks and getting to the finals. However, this was under normal circumstances and there is absolutely nothing about these playoffs that will be normal. There is a rhythm to the season and a chemistry every contender needs to develop and there is absolutely no precedent for taking more than a four month break in the middle of the season. You really have no idea what kind of shape the players will be in when they come back and what kind of rust they will have. You have no idea where their heads will be at now that their routines have been completely upended. Plus, having home court is such a major factor in a playoff series and now that basically goes out the window. This is basically going to resemble more of a giant AAU tournament than the NBA playoffs.

    While I would still consider the Lakers, Bucks and Clippers to be favorites when the season resumes, at this point I’d basically say all bets are off. Nothing that happens in this environment would genuinely surprise me and I think this will be a completely wide open race.

  • Posted on: Thu, 06/11/2020 - 8:53am #1236940

    holefillers1
    Participant

    You see how jacked Simmons is? Healthy Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid equal problems for everyone else. One thing about this set up is I believe it will be easier for referees to call the games. I feel like crowd noise, home court, momentum swings allow refs to get caught in the moment. We shall see

  • Posted on: Fri, 06/12/2020 - 1:04am #1236950

    BothTeamsPlayedHard-
    Participant

    If Simmons still runs and hides in the corner in the 4th quarter, it wouldn’t matter if he looked like DK Metcalf. The restart will also put Embiid in a spot where history says his body won’t hold. If the 8-game regular season starts on July 30th and presumably ends on August 14th (the possible play-in is set for the 15th and 16th). This means 8 games in 16 days. The proper 1st round starts August 17th and runs through the 30th. Philadelphia figures to be in the 4-6 range, so it will project to be a long series, so follow up 8 in 16 with possibly another 7 games in 13 days after maybe a two day break. Given how they relied on Jimmy Butler and JJ Redick for offense late in the playoffs games, and the replacements are a pick’em among Korkmaz, Shake Milton, Josh Richardson, and Alec Burks, I do not see that working.

    Boston would feel like a weird team to hit the ground running simply because guys on rookie scale contracts (while rich) are not so rich as to have homes with their own gyms and courts (see HORSE with Conley and LaVine). While they have the capability to go 10-12 deep, they also probably have a lot of guys living in a condo or renting a house that lack the perks of a vet.

    While I don’t truly believe this will happen, I will still back the Mavs to pull off a first round upset. I am really hoping Luka has done full Boris Diaw, full only running to chase an ice cream truck fat. I feel like it is a time honored tradition of NBA lockouts that someone comes back 20 lbs heavier and somehow can still play.

  • Posted on: Sat, 06/13/2020 - 2:16am #1236973

    canadabasketballisrising
    Participant

    Bucks over the field to win (over 50%)? wow..
    I would say
    Clippers 30%
    Lakers 25%
    Bucks 20%
    Sixers 5%
    celtics 5%
    rockets 5%
    rest 5%

  • Posted on: Sat, 06/13/2020 - 11:31am #1236984

    sniper
    Participant

    I mostly agree with Dazzling … this is just going to be a random shitshow, no one can predict what’s going to happen without knowing 1) What players will refuse to participate at all; 2) What shape players will be in; 3) How players will handle life in the “bubble” and how that will affect team chemistry; 4) What happens if someone tests positive; and lots of other factors.

    I feel like the Lakers might have a slight advantage in all of this, in that LeBron may be able to get his teammates to buy in and sacrifice in a way that no other player can. But one injury or corona virus infection could blow all that up in a heartbeat.

  • Posted on: Sat, 06/13/2020 - 1:54pm #1236985

    OhCanada-
    Participant

    Seriously? Boston ahead of Toronto because of injuries? Toronto had way more injuries to their main starters and still ended up 3 games ahead of Boston with a much tougher schedule. I still dont think Milwaukee can beat Toronto in 7 games. If everyones healthy/injuries aside I honestly think the only team that can beat Toronto would be the LA Clippers and Kawhi Leonard, and in the East the biggest challenge would be the Miami Heat. But I don’t see the Heat beating the Bucks and I don’t see the Clippers beating the Lakers so…

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