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Southeast Division – 2009/10 Outlook

The Southeast Division had the East’s representative in the finals albeit
a short finals with the Magic. With Dwight Howard and Dwyane Wade, this division
consists of two of the top 5 players in the game. The Southeast also consists
of two of the league’s struggling franchises with Charlotte and Washington.
Granted the Wizards have the talent to turn things around quickly depending
on the health of Agent 0.

Orlando Magic

2008-2009 Record (59-23, 3rd in Eastern Conference)

Returning Payroll – $60.9 mil

Guaranteed Contracts: SF/PF Rashard Lewis ($18.0 mil), C Dwight
Howard ($14.4 mil), PG Jameer Nelson ($7.6 mil), C Tony Battie ($6.3 mil), SG/SF
Mickael Pietrus ($5.3 mil), PG Rafer Alston ($5.3 mil), SG JJ Redick ($2.8 mil),
SG Courtney Lee ($1.3 mil)

Restricted Free Agents: C Marcin Gortat

Player Options or Early Termination Options: SF Hedo Turkoglu
($7.4 mil)

Expiring Contracts: PG Tyronn Lue ($2.5 mil)

Team Needs: Power Forward, frontcourt depth

Draft Picks: None

Analysis:

The Eastern Conference champs have one of the deepest teams in the league. Next
year, they will be returning almost all their core guys. But, their best playmaker,
Hedo Turkoglu, will be opting out of his contract and looking for a long-term
extension. Although the Magic proved in the playoffs that any of their guys
can hurt you at any given time, they need Turkoglu. The offense runs through
him. Dwight Howard is their best player and their future, but for how dominant
he is, his offensive game is still very much of a work-in-progress. Rashard
Lewis will give you 17-20 points a game, but he has to play off of his teammates.
Turkoglu is the only Magic player who they run isolation plays for and especially
the only player who is effective running pick n’ rolls. Signing Turkoglu,
who is 30 years old, will be the number one priority for the Magic in the offseason.
But, other teams will be looking to sign Turkoglu after his playoff performance
this year.

In order to sign Turkoglu, the Magic will have to either move another player
or two to try and create some cap space, or head into luxury tax territory,
something that general manager Otis Smith has said they do not plan on doing.
Assuming that the Magic create the space to re-sign Turkoglu, the other coveted
free agent center Marcin Gortat is probably all but gone from Orlando. The backup
center has made a name for himself during the playoffs. Most notably, an 11
point, 15 rebound game vs. Philadelphia in the 1st round when Dwight Howard
was out on suspension. Considering his age (25) and size (7-0, 245 lbs), Gortat
should see plenty of offers in the summer that the Magic likely will not be
able to match.

The draft will not be helpful for the Orlando Magic. They traded for Rafer Alston
in February for their 1st round pick in this June’s draft. Alston has
filled in nicely for the injured All-Star Jameer Nelson, and he is signed through
next season at $5.25 million.

Five rotation players for the Orlando Magic are under the age of 27. They will
be in the mix of things in the Eastern Conference for the next few years as
long as Dwight Howard is healthy. But, if they want to get back to the finals
and compete for a title next year, then Hedo Turkoglu will have to be resigned
this summer.

Atlanta Hawks

2008-2009 Record (47-35, 4th in Eastern Conference)

Returning Payroll – $40.0 mil

Guaranteed Contracts: SG Joe Johnson ($14.9 mil), Josh Smith
SF/PF ($10.8 mil), PG Speedy Claxton ($5.2 mil), C Al Horford ($4.3 mil), SG
Maurice Evans ($2.5 mil), PG Acie Law IV ($2.2 mil)

Restricted Free Agents: SF Marvin Williams ($7.4 mil)

Player Options or Early Termination Options: None

Expiring Contracts: PG Mike Bibby ($14.9 mil), C Zaza Pachulia
($4.0), G Ronald Murray ($1.5 mil)

Team needs: PG?, C, outside shooting

Draft Picks: 19th pick (1st round), 49th (2nd round)

Analysis:

It has been 11 years since the Hawks won as many games as this season. The success
was expected because of their strong finish in the previous season when they
took the eventual champion Boston Celtics to 7 games (further than anyone) in
the 1st round of the playoffs. That series got fans in Atlanta excited again
and the Hawks didn’t let them down with a 47-win campaign and an appearance
in the 2nd round of the Eastern Conference playoffs this year, where they were
finished off quite easily by the top ranked Cleveland Cavaliers.

There is a common denominator with last season’s run to make the playoffs,
the 1st round battle with the Celtics, and this year’s successful season:
and it’s Mike Bibby. Since Bibby was traded for during mid-season last
year, the Hawks have taken their game to another level with back-to-back playoff
appearances for a franchise that hadn’t been there since 1999. Now, the
Hawks have to decide just how much Bibby is worth to their franchise because
he is an unrestricted free agent. Bibby has expressed that he would love to
stay in Atlanta and coach Mike Woodson has stated that he would love to have
him back.

The other dilemma that the Hawks face is in restricted free agent Marvin Williams.
He started in 59 out of the 61 games that he played last year, averaging 13.9
ppg and 6.3 rpg. Williams is still only 22 years old after completing his 4th
season in the NBA. Williams played sparingly during the playoffs because of
a wrist injury.
Re-signing both Bibby and Williams may be tough for the Hawks this summer. They
may have to decide between Bibby’s leadership and Williams’ potential.
Bibby has proven his worth in Atlanta and will not cost the Hawks as much as
signing the younger Williams. Williams has proven only that he wasn’t
worth the #2 overall pick in 2005. The Hawks will be better served signing Bibby
to a reasonable 3 year contract and drafting a wing player with the 19th pick
for insurance in case Williams gets a large contract offer from an outside team
like expected. The Hawks already have at least 20 million coming off the books
for the big 2010 free agent class, and if they let Williams go elsewhere then
they could be even bigger players in the summer of 2010.

The Hawks didn’t have any draft picks last year to help bolster their
roster. This year, with the 19th pick they could get a quality guy to replace
Williams’ role. Wake Forest’s James Johnson would be a steal at
19. North Carolina’s Wayne Ellington should be able to come in right away
and score points. Louisville’s Terrence Williams or Xavier’s Derrick
Brown could also be good fits.

This summer will be busy for the Hawks front office as center Zaza Pachulia
and guard Ronald Murray are both unrestricted free agents. Both were also part
of the rotation during the playoffs. Pachulia was the first and only big-man
to come off the bench. He shouldn’t command many offers from other NBA
teams because he is limited in what he can do. He is a good fit in Atlanta and
he will most likely be back for about the same money ($4.0 mil). Murray could
be another story. He showed in the playoffs that he can still fill it up off
the bench with the best of them, as he did in game 5 of the 1st round vs. the
Miami Heat when he scored 23 points. At age 29 and never signing a big contract
or staying put with the same team for an extended period of time, Murray could
be looking to do both, and more than likely somewhere other than Atlanta.

Miami Heat

2008-2009 Record (43-39, 5th in Eastern Conference)

Returning Payroll – $60.0 mil

Guaranteed Contracts: PF/C Jermaine O’Neal ($23.0 mil),
G Dwayne Wade ($15.8 mil), PF Udonis Haslem ($7.1 mil), F Michael Beasley ($4.6
mil), SG/SF James Jones ($4.3 mil), SF Dorrell Wright ($2.9 mil), SG Daequan
Cook ($1.4 mil), PG Mario Chalmers ($756,000)

Restricted Free Agents: None

Player Options or Early Termination Options: C Mark Blount
($7.9 mil), PG Chris Quinn ($1.1 mil)
Expiring Contracts: C Jamaal Magloire ($1.1 mil)

Team needs:
Veteran point guard

Draft Picks: 43rd (2nd round), 60th (2nd round)

Analysis:

The Miami Heat lost a tough 7 game series to the Atlanta Hawks in the 1st round.
Much improved from last year’s 15-win campaign. Dwayne Wade played in
79 games this season compared to his 51 games in 2007-2008. Wade’s health
was the biggest reason for the boost in wins, but it wasn’t the only difference.
Rookies were key for the Heat this season. Michael Beasley was drafted 2nd overall
and helped out offensively (13.9 ppg), especially down the stretch of the season
(20.6 ppg in the month of March). Mario Chalmers proved to be a steal with the
32nd pick, starting 81 of 82 games, averaging 10.0 ppg and 4.9 apg.

During this summer, the Heat won’t be big players, because everything
is geared for the summer of 2010. Extending Dwayne Wade before next summer will
be crucial. It will do two things: the obvious benefit is that they are locking
up one of the best players in the NBA which alone should keep them competitive.
Second, it will make the Heat much more attractive for the high-profile players
to sign with the Heat next summer. With Jermaine O’Neal’s contract
coming off the books at the end of next season, the Heat will have cap space
regardless if Wade is already signed or not. O’Neal had the 3rd highest
salary in the NBA this season ($21.6 mil) and it goes up next year ($23.0 mil).

Last year the draft was vital for the Heat, and they cashed in big-time with
Beasley and Chalmers. This year is a different story, they don’t draft
until the 43rd pick, so anything out of the draft will be a bonus for next year.
However, they do have some patchwork to do to the roster that will help them
stay competitive. Jamario Moon came over in the trade when they dealt Shawn
Marion to the Toronto Raptors for Jermaine O’Neal. Moon started 21 games
for the Heat before his season was slowed by a groin injury. Resigning Moon
gives the Heat a defensive minded player that they would lack if he signed with
another club.

Chalmers did a great job at the point for the Heat, but starting the whole season
wil be a huge task for a 2nd rounder. The Heat could desperately use a veteran
point guard to help Chalmers with point guard duties for next year. Free Agent
Stephon Marbury has a lot of baggage, but could see Miami as a good fit, and
the Heat could use him and his experience.

The Heat are not going to be contenders next year because O’Neal is old
and broken down and Beasley won’t be ready to help Wade out consistently.
But, if the Heat can extend Wade before the summer of 2010 and Beasley continues
to grow into a legit scorer, the stars will be aligned to sign a big-time free
agent after O’Neal’s contract expires and make Dwayne Wade and the
Heat once again contenders for the NBA title.

Charlotte Bobcats

2008-2009 Record (35-47, 10th in Eastern Conference)

Returning Payroll – $57.0 mil

Guaranteed Contracts: C Emeka Okafor ($10.5 mil), SF Gerald
Wallace ($9.5 mil), F Boris Diaw ($9.0 mil), C Nazr Mohammed ($6.5 mil), SF
Vladimir Radmanovic ($6.5 mil), C DeSagana Diop ($6.0 mil), SG Raja Bell ($5.3
mil), PG DJ Augustin ($2.4 mil), C Alexis Ajinca ($1.4 mil)

Restricted Free Agents: PG Raymond Felton ($5.5 mil), PF Sean
May ($3.7 mil)

Player Options or Early Termination Options:

Expiring Contracts: C Juwan Howard ($1.1 mil)

Team needs: SG, PF

Draft Picks: 12th pick (1st round), 40th pick (2nd round),
54th (2nd round)

Analysis:

The Bobcats won 35 games this season and missed the playoffs by 4 games. The
core of guys that they played with this year will have to improve in the future
or the roster will have to be blown up because most of the contracts are long-term.
Despite never making the playoffs before, the Bobcats are actually built to
win now.

The Bobcats really only have two decisions to make this summer. They have to
bring back point guard Raymond Felton who is a restricted free agent. He logged
the bulk of the minutes (37.6) at the point last year and was one of the more
productive players on the team (14.2 ppg, 6.7 apg). Bringing Felton back is
most likely going to happen, but if Felton has another team that is a big fan,
then coach Larry Brown won’t hesitate to give point guard duties to DJ
Augustin, who was the 9th pick in the draft last year.

The other decision is to resign Sean May who is also a restricted free agent.
Taken in the lottery, May has been a disappointment thus far in his career.
He is out of shape and always getting injured. Looking at Charlotte’s
current situation of big-men, it’s obvious that they have a full stable.
Okafor is locked in for long-term. Diaw will eat up some minutes at power forward.
Then Mohammed, Diop, and Ajinca (last year’s other 1st round pick at 20)
will all be fighting for minutes. There isn’t much room for May, and this
is why all indications point towards the Bobcats letting him walk into free
agency.

The 12th pick could be used to find a big-sized two-guard. After Raja Bell,
the Bobcats do not have much at shooting guard. Last year, Augustin played in
the backcourt with Felton, but they were extremely small. USC’s Demar
DeRozan or Duke’s Gerald Henderson both would be good fits. They would
give the Bobcats much needed size at the two spot and another scoring option.

The Bobcats future plans are for next season. They are a team that is expected
to win now and with a full season of the veterans they have, along with hall
of famer coach Larry Brown, expect next season to be the first playoff appearance
in franchise history.

Washington Wizards

2008-2009 Record (19-63, 15th in Eastern Conference)

Returning Payroll – $68.8 mil

Guaranteed Contracts: G Gilbert Arenas ($16.2 mil), F Antawn
Jamison ($11.6 mil), SF Caron Butler ($10.0 mil), PG Mike James ($6.5 mil),
C Brendan Haywood ($6.0 mil), PF Darius Songaila ($4.5 mil), SG/SF DeShawn Stevenson
($3.9 mil), C/PF Andray Blatche ($3.0 mil), SG Nick Young ($1.7 mil), C Oleksiy
Pecherov ($1.5 mil), C JaVale McGee ($1.5 mil), G Javaris Crittenton ($1.5 mil)

Restricted Free Agents: None

Player Options or Early Termination Options: PF/C Etan Thomas
($7.4 mil)

Expiring Contracts: G Juan Dixon ($998,398)

Team needs:
PF, low-block scorer

Draft Picks: 5th pick (1st round), 32nd pick (2nd round)

Analysis:

This year was a lost season for the Washington Wizards. Franchise player Gilbert
Arenas was injured all year and only played 2 games. As a result, the Wizards
won only 19 games and finished last in the Eastern Conference. The last place
finish was a surprise for a team that had made the playoffs the previous four
seasons.

Next year, barring injuries, the Wizards will be expected to be right back in
the thick of things. The big 3 (Arenas, Caron Butler, and Antawn Jamison) have
proven they can get them to the playoffs without much help. And because of the
fallen season, they have the 5th pick to add to their veteran core. The Wizards
will most likely use their pick on a big-man, most plausible pick is Arizona’s
Jordan Hill. Hill, along with last year’s first round pick JaVale McGee
would give the Wizards young and energetic big-men to go along with their great
perimeter players. But Washington apparently may go in another direction.

Rumors have swirled lately about the Wizards trading the 5th pick to add a veteran.
The Dallas Mavericks have shown interest and are possibly offering up Jason
Terry or Josh Howard, which would give the Wizards insurance in case Arenas
has a knee injury again. At this point, Arenas re-injuring the knee again has
to be a serious concern for the Wizards.

The Ace in the hole for the Wizards next season may be the expiring contracts
of both Etan Thomas and Mike James. Neither player will be a big factor in any
success that Washington has next year, but they will still be desirable commodities
for teams out of the playoff race and looking to dump salaries for the 2010
summer. The Wizards should be competitive with their current roster, adding
a veteran before the trade deadline next year could make the Wizards competitive
in the East.

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3 Comments

  1. Good job with Charlotte
    Brian, that was a good analysis of the Bobcats, in my humble opinion. Thanks from a fan in Charlotte. We’d do well to replace Sean May with a PF draft pick if we don’t go the SG route.

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