By Mike Misek
2010/11 Memphis Grizzlies Payroll: $47.3 million
2010/11 NBA Salary Cap: $56.1 million
Roughly: $8.8 million under cap
Variables:
Stephen Hunter – Unrestricted Free Agent
Jamaal Tinsley – Unrestricted Free Agent
Marcus Williams – Unrestricted Free Agent
Lester Hudson – Non-guaranteed Team Option for $762K
Rudy Gay – Qualifying Offer for $4.4 million
Ronnie Brewer – Qualifying Offer for $3.8 million
Draft Picks: Lottery Pick (slotted for 13th), 25th pick overall, and 28th pick overall
The Good: A sixteen game improvement in the standings is always a pleasant outcome. Zach Randolph showed up in shape and motivated. Marc Gasol lost even more weight, so much so that he is actually beginning to both bear resemblance to his brother and play like him. O.J. Mayo and Rudy Gay continued their development. Sam Young had the look of a player who will have a long career in the Memphis rotation. The team even withstood the Allen Iverson saga, with their coach Lionel Hollins taking a hard line approach with him and the club benefiting from it. It is difficult to find anyone who can come away from the Memphis season with the belief that they did not exceed expectations. Unfortunately, that leads to…
The Bad: Zach Randolph will earn 17 million next season, over twice as much as the next highest paid player. He was an all star in 2009-10 so it’s not as if he’s not making an impact. But a player earning that much needs to be leading a team into the playoffs. And Randolph just isn’t THAT good. On the positive side, his deal expires after next season, meaning that he is a very intriguing target for trade due to his cap number. Marko Jaric is the next highest paid player at 7 million and he was collateral damage in the deal that brought them OJ Mayo. His 7 million will come off the books after next season, and he too will be an intriguing trade target.
The Grizzlies have to guard against being too impressed with mediocrity. While Memphis exceeded expectations, they still were only 40-42. The best option for the team may very well be to work a sign-and-trade in order to try and get more youth or draft picks. O.J. Mayo can easily handle taking on a greater role offensively, and Sam Young showed tremendous potential defensively to become the team’s stopper. It would also open up the possibility to keeping Ronnie Brewer, another really good wing defender. The team has no financial commitments past next season, which is both a positive and a negative. They have some young talent, particularly budding star Rudy Gay that will need to be locked up with a lucrative deal or traded.
The Future: Memphis figures to head into the summer under the cap, but they likely will need to get creative to stay there. The team will undoubtedly extend the qualifying offers to Rudy Gay and Ronnie Brewer to allow them, at least the possibility, of matching tenders on the restricted free agents. Rudy Gay figures to be the Plan B for many of the franchises who have stockpiled cap space and sold their fan base on the summer of 2010 being the turning point in their rebuilding. It is fair to question whether Rudy Gay would be worth a max offer, but it is also hard to imagine him not receiving an offer close to the 5-year $82 million max starting at $14 million in 2010-11. A deal starting at $14 million would put Memphis up against the luxury tax barrier if they were to keep their three first round picks and not have one or two stashed abroad. Matching such a deal would also put Memphis in a tough spot going forward as 2011 will be the summer where Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph will be free agents, and O.J. Mayo will be eligible for an extension.
Grade: B
Zach Randolph
He was a damn good player last year. One of the best in the NBA. Zach made Marc Gasol a better player, and the team’s offense wasn’t so confused as years before. He’s worth that 17M if they can get a true point that can lead a team.
Rudy Gay is not a max/near
Rudy Gay is not a max/near max player. I think a high end contract for him would be 6 years at 70 mil and that is really pushing it. I would rather sign and trade him or just flat out let him walk. I don’t want a potential Rashard Lewis type on my team if were going for a championship. 5 years for 82mil is just ludircris for Gay. He’s a nice player but not a game changer.
Here’s a tougher question.
Gay is supposed to be signed this off season. If Memphis wants to retain Randolf do you think Randolf will accept making less the Gay considering he is more productive? I realize the market will dictate his value aswell but consider that if your Memphis you might very well have a substantial portion of your cap tied up in 2 players who won’t be worth their contracts from the day they sign them compared to many other options out there.
Rudy Gay or Josh Smith for instance? Who’s worth more to a team? Josh Smith didn’t get a max why would Gay?
Lamar Odom and Artest were bargain signings by comparison.
Gay seems tapped out as far as productivity goes. He won’t produce anymore then he has been the last 2 years just because he makes more money.
Grizzles
The Grizzles seem to be in a great situation in my eyes. If they could have held it together a little longer they would have been able to make the playoffs. I see them as the same calibur team as the Thunder. Young studs Mayo, Gay, Gasol, Conley with all-star veteran Z-Bo leading. (Psssst O.J. I put your name first)
Zach Randolph’s contract is a little hefty but they’re getting an veteran and an all-star. He’s scores, rebounds, he’s tough, and spaces the floor, there are worse contracts out there. Marc Gasol = excellance, he’s good and he’s getting better, what more can you ask of the guy. He provides a low post threat, boards, defense, and he’s a big legit 7 footer, absolutely love the guy. O.J. Mayo, I love the guy and love saying the name. He wants to be the star of the team, he wants the pressure, he wants it all, he works hard and deserves all of those things. He’s not your proto-typical guard at 6’4″ but his hasn’t seemed to really hinder his talent too much. He’s not a house hold name yet, which makes me wonder if he’s happy, he was the NEXT BIG PLAYER coming out of high school after Bron Bron. I think they should re-sign Rudy Gay, I think he is worth around 10-13 million, if there wasn’t Mayo and Randolph on the team he’d be averaging a good 26 points, got to have a star player, he’s a star. Mike Conley is also a young and improving player, he’s not exactly the dominate leader they want him to be but I believe he’s making steps towards becoming a really good player.
Bring Brewer Back!!! I’m not quite sure what Utah was thinking when they traded hhim but I think he’s a type of player you keep, he doesn’t have to be your star player but but he’s a very good player oozing potential. Young’s good, Thabeet showed some skill and effort after the D-League scare, I’m uncertain of Carroll, I haven’t seen him play or can’t really remember him having a game that really stuck out to me but he was a rook, Marcus Williams is a decent back up, consistantcy would be really nice though.
They have THREE 1st-rounders which is scary considering how well and how much they improved last season. They should be able to get somebody like Xavier Henry or Ed Davis with the 12th pick, Nbadraft.net has them taking Bledsoe with the 25th pick, which I love for them if he’s taken earlier maybe Willie Warren. They should sell the last pick to a team with out a 1st rounder, that would add a little money, and save a roster spot.
No matter what they decide with the draft picks or Rudy Gay, they seem to have a very bright future.