NCAA Power 16 Rankings

By Josh Cochran and Joel Steiner
NCAA Power 16: February 8th

You know the college basketball season is exhibiting a lot of parody when the Conference RPI standings going into the upcoming week has the Pac -10 rated 8th.

Conference RPI as of 2/7/10:

1. Big 12

2. Big East

3. ACC

4. SEC

5. Big Ten

6. Atlantic 10

7. Mountain West

8. PAC 10

After the top five power conference leagues, it gets interesting. The Atlantic 10 is impressive with six teams in the RPI top 50 and all of those teams have a shot at an NCAA Tournament berth. The MWC has three teams locked into NCAA Tournament berths with San Diego State having an opportunity to play their way in. When you look at the PAC 10 they have one RPI top 50 team and it looks like this is a one bid league in 2010. Even with all of the parody, the Big 12, Big East and Big 10 dominate our Power 16 Rankings with 11 of the top 16 teams.

Rank (Last Week)	Record	Comment
1. Syracuse (2)	23-1	After seeing the fine tuned Syracuse machine in person against Cincy, we’ve decided to rank them #1. The Orange didn’t play particularly well and they still won a tough conference road game by 17 points. Jim Boeheim’s club has tremendous size and they utilize it in the 2-3 zone to wear opponents down. They also have tremendous balance on the offensive end with the ability to score in the post and on the perimeter. This team will likely win the Big East and we would be very surprised if they don’t make it to the Final Four.
2. Kansas (1)	22-1	The Jayhawks recent stumbles (two overtime games) have dropped them from our #1 ranking. Sherron Collins has complete command over this ballclub and he has willed them to a couple of recent road victories. If they can win their much anticipated match up with Texas Monday night, they’ll have a shot to run the table in the Big 12 regular season.
3. Kentucky (3)	22-1	In our opinion it’s Kansas, Syracuse, Kentucky and everyone else. The Wildcats are rolling again with three consecutive blowout wins. Coach Cal needs to continue pushing this team to get better every day, because there’s potential for them to get bored in the SEC. One guy who’s improved tremendously throughout the season is DeMarcus Cousins. He’s leading the Wildcats with 18.3 points and 10.6 rebounds per game in SEC play.
4. Villanova (4)	21-2	They’re 21-2 and were ranked #2 in the major polls last week, but this team will not make the Final Four because of its defense. The Wildcats rank 59th in adjusted defensive efficiency, according to kenpom.com. No team ranking outside of the top 20 in that stat has made the Final Four in the last four years.
5. Purdue (6)	19-3	Last week was huge for Purdue even though they only played one game. Michigan State dropped two games, which means the Boilers will have a chance to gain a share of the Big Ten lead when the two teams meet this week. This team’s biggest weakness is the 3-point line. They’re shooting 31.6% from 3 (269th in the country) and they’re allowing opponents to shoot 36.7% (286th in the country).
6. West Virginia (7)	19-3	The biggest news out of Morgantown is the reprehensible behavior of WVU’s fans. That’s unfortunate, because their basketball team is playing very well. The Mountaineers got big man Deniz Kilicli back and promptly blew out Pitt. Then, they rallied from another double-digit deficit against St. John’s as Da’Sean Buter went 7-7 from 3-point range. They have a huge upcoming week with a home date against Villanova and a trip to hostile Pitt.
7. Kansas State (9)	19-4	K-State bounced back nicely after that tough OT loss at home to Kansas. Frank Martin’s team won two road games last week to run their record to 5-1 away from the Octagon of Doom. The Wildcats are also 5-1 against the top 25. Outside of a rematch with Kansas at Allen Fieldhouse, K-State’s remaining schedule is manageable. They’ll have an excellent shot at a top two seed if they can hold serve.
8. Georgetown (8)	17-5	This team has been Jekyll and Hyde lately. They looked terrible at Syracuse and then played like a Final Four team against Duke. Then, they lose a shocker at home against South Florida only to turn around and throttle Villanova. The truth probably lies somewhere in between, which means the Hoyas are a very good team, but not elite. One player who has been elite is Austin Freeman. He’s averaging 19.9 ppg in Big East play behind an astounding 58.3% 3-point shooting percentage.
9. Duke (12)	19-4	The Blue Devils had a solid week dismantling Georgia Tech at home and beating BC on the road. This week the Blue Devils have an opportunity to take control of the ACC race with a road date at UNC and a home game against second place Maryland. Last week I called out Kyle Singler and he responded by knocking down 8 three pointers against Tech, but he was again inconsistent versus BC with a 4 of 14 shooting performance. The teams’ success for the rest of the season may rest on Singler’s ability to be more consistent shooting from the outside.
10. Michigan State (5)	19-5	Last week we warned Sparty fans that the upcoming schedule was going to be brutal. Throw in an injury to Kalin Lucas and Tom Izzo has real problems. Things don’t get any easier this week as Purdue rolls into town. A loss to the Boilers would throw the Big Ten up for grabs. We often think of the Spartans as a strong defensive unit, but this year’s version ranks only 39th in adjusted defensive efficiency. By comparison, last year’s Final Four squad ranked 10th.
11. Wisconsin (16)	18-5	After sweeping the Michigan schools, the Badgers are back in the Big Ten title race as they have learned to play without Jon Leuer. Keaton Nankivil has been the beneficiary of Leuer’s absence and has scored in double figures in four of their last five games. This week Wisconsin plays two games at home, so you might as well chalk them up as wins with the way Bo Ryan’s club plays at the Kohl Center.
12. Ohio State (13)	17-6	I wonder if anybody has been national player of the year and missed six games? Right now it looks like Evan Turner has passed John Wall in the race as he averaged 29.0 points, 8.5 rebounds and 5.5 assists against Penn State and Iowa. Tricky week for the Buckeyes with a road trip to Indiana and Illinois, but I like their chances to get two with Evan Turner. The question for the Buckeyes as the season progresses will be their depth as they are 335th in the country in bench minutes. Can Turner, Diebler, Lighty and Buford continue to log 40 minutes every game? It sounds like a lot to ask of players in the physical Big Ten Conference.
13. BYU (11)	22-3	BYU lost its third road game of the season in Sin City as Tre’von Willis of UNLV torched the Cougars for 33. Now the MWC has a three-way tie for the league lead with New Mexico, UNLV and BYU all with 7-2 records. Lucky for BYU they are done playing UNLV and host both New Mexico and 4th place San Diego State. They have only one remaining road game against a team above .500. Overall, BYU’s schedule sets up for them to grab the #1 seed in the conference tournament.
14. Texas (10)	19-4	I don’t know how many times we have to talk about Texas’ poor free throw shooting, but against Oklahoma it was just frightening to watch. Their 5-18 three-point showing was almost as bad as the 10-27 free throw barrage. Opposing teams will play a sagging zone and make Texas hit shots, which they’ve shown an inability to do. In the past month it has worked and it won’t get any easier with Kansas Monday night. Fun fact of the week is that Dogus Balbay has not attempted a three pointer since 2009. A team whose starting point guard has not attempted a three pointer in two months doesn’t project favorably in March.
15. Butler (15)	20-4	Butler has essentially closed out the Horizon league with a 4.5 game lead with five games remaining. We can look forward to their Bracket Buster game against Siena on 2/20. The Bulldogs bring as balanced of a scoring attack as any team in the country with four players averaging double figures. Even more impressive is that they score 25.7% of their points at the free throw line, which is ranked 16th in the country. So beware of a team that attacks the rim like the Bulldogs that also shoots 74.7% from the free throw stripe.
16. Tennessee (NR)	18-5	This week may define the Vols’ season as they travel to rival Vanderbilt and Kentucky. Right now Tennessee is one game behind Kentucky and tied with Vandy in the SEC East, so less than a split this week will end their title hopes. Wayne Chism had an impressive week averaging 25.0 ppg and 5.5 rpg in wins over LSU and South Carolina. Chism and Scottie Hopson will need to have big games this week on the offensive end, but Bobby Maze’s ability to defend John Wall and Jermaine Beal will be more important if Tennessee is to get these key road wins.

The Next Five: Gonzaga, Maryland, Northern Iowa, New Mexico, UTEP

Games to Watch:

Monday February 8th

Villanova at West Virginia – Big Monday doesn’t get much bigger than the two match ups this week. First, it’s a battle of Big East heavyweights, Villanova and WVU. I’ve been critical of WVU since early December due to their lack of a true PG and a low post presence. They continue to fall behind early, only to storm back for close 2nd half wins. I doubt that style of play is sustainable. However, ‘Nova has problems of its own, as we discussed in the capsule above. Those defensive problems were evident in the Wildcats’ loss to Georgetown this Saturday and I expect it will lead to a few more losses in Big East play. One of those losses will come Monday night in Morgantown.

Kansas at Texas – A few weeks ago, we thought this might be a match up of the top two teams in the country. Texas’ recent struggles have taken some of the luster away from this one, but we’ll settle for #1 versus #14. The Jayhawks haven’t won in Austin since 2002, going 0-3 in that stretch. However, that won’t matter when the 2010 KU squad takes the floor, because they’re simply the better team. Expect Bill Self’s team to get the win, giving them a commanding lead in the Big 12.

Tuesday February 9th

Tennessee at Vanderbilt – The Volunteers are looking for revenge just two weeks after losing at home to the Commodores. Additionally, both teams are looking to keep pace with Kentucky in the SEC East, so this game will be key for conference tournament seeding. Vandy has been on a tear winning 11 of its last 12 games, and a big reason for that success is Jermaine Beal. He’s averaging 16.9 points per game on 48.7% shooting in SEC play. Meanwhile, Tennessee has been struggling lately, so expect Vandy to get the win.

Purdue at Michigan State – Many thought Sparty was going to run away with the Big Ten title after sprinting to an early 3-game lead. We warned you over the last few weeks that Tom Izzo’s club had a difficult remaining schedule, making it possible for teams like Purdue, Wisconsin and Ohio State to get back in the mix. We didn’t know Kalin Lucas would get hurt, which really makes things interesting. On the flip side, Purdue got their starting PG, Lewis Jackson, back from what was thought to be a season-ending injury. He’s played limited minutes so far, but his presence has been a big lift to the Boilermakers. If Lucas doesn’t play, Purdue must take advantage if they want any shot at the Big Ten title.

Wednesday February 10th

UCONN at Syracuse – There will be a ton of NBA talent on the floor Wednesday night in the Carrier Dome and no match up will be more intriguing than Wes Johnson versus Stanley Robinson. The Huskies will need Robinson to come up big in that individual battle if they hope to earn a resume-building win. We don’t see that happening though. Syracuse is too good defensively and UCONN’s poor outside shooting will be exposed by the 2-3 zone.

Duke at North Carolina – It’s the greatest rivalry in college basketball, but this might be the least anticipated game between these two schools in quite some time. Despite all of their talent, the Tar Heels are not very good. They’re 10th in the ACC and must win this game in order to keep their NCAA Tournament hopes alive. The Blue Devils are 2-4 on the road and they’ve lost 3 straight to UNC. Expect them to buck both of those trends and pick up a huge win in Chapel Hill.

New Mexico at UNLV – If you haven’t noticed, we’re big fans of the Mountain West Conference this year. The Lobos and Rebels are two big reasons why. UNLV pulled off the upset when these two met in Albuquerque, so Steve Alford’s team will be looking for revenge. They’ll need Darington Hobson to return to early season form as he’s struggled in conference play, shooting only 36.9% from the floor.

Thursday February 11th

Saint Mary’s at Gonzaga – This may be the de facto WCC regular season championship game as the Gaels travel to the Kennel. Saint Mary’s senior Omar Samhan is a one man wrecking crew that has caught the eye of scouts. This game is obviously bigger for Saint Mary’s who needs a quality road win to help their NCAA Tournament resume’. I just don’t know if the Gaels have enough to win on the road against a deep Gonzaga squad.

Friday February 12th

West Virginia at Pittsburgh – The Mountaineers pounded Pitt in Morgantown in their first meeting, but this game is in the Oakland Zoo. It will be rowdy after WVU fans’ actions in the first meeting. The Panthers perimeter shooting woes have been the cause of their current struggles and I don’t see it getting much better in the near future. WVU’s toughness has allowed them to get back in the Big East title picture and winning this game is a key to climbing to the top of the Big East.

Saturday February 12th

Tennessee at Kentucky –This is a make or break week for Tennessee with road games at Vandy and Kentucky. I just can’t see Tennessee playing another perfect game like they did against Kansas, so going into Rupp and winning is not likely. DeMarcus Cousins has been dominating lately and Tennessee has nobody that can play with him. Cousins’ hands and touch around the rim are off the charts, but his rebounding efficiency, per kenpom.com, ranks in the top 10 for both offensive and defensive rebounding.

Maryland at Duke – I guess these are the two best teams in the ACC, but what does that mean this year? This should be a key game for the regular season conference championship, plus it will be a good point guard match-up with Vasquez and Scheyer going head-to-head. Maryland needs to get a couple more quality wins to feel safe and a win at Duke would accomplish that.

Xaiver at Florida – This will be a resume-builder game as both teams could find themselves on the bubble on Selection Sunday.

Sunday February 13th

Louisville at Syracuse – Does any team need a marquee road win more than Louisville? The Cardinals will need a spectacular shooting effort to knock of Syracuse at home, but Wesley Johnson and crew are just too good to lose to Louisville.

Ohio State at Illinois – If the Buckeyes have any chance of winning the Big Ten, a key road win against Illinois is a must. Illinois’ front line of Mike Davis and Mike Tisdale will have to keep Evan Turner from having easy finishing opportunities around the rim; otherwise the Buckeyes will get a key road win. By the way William Buford is shooting the ball as well as anyone else in the country, validating his NBA potential of late.

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