Inside the College Game | Free FallBy: Adi Joseph

The defending champion Tar Heels would be lucky to receive bubble consideration at this point in the season, boasting a 13-11 record, including a 2-7 mark in the ACC. In the last week, they were throttled at Maryland and beaten at home by archrival Duke. At this point, the closest ACC comparison is probably North Carolina State, another in-state “rival” coached by Sidney Lowe.

There you have it. North Carolina, the team many, including your’s truly, believed could win the ACC, has competed at roughly an equivalent level to a team coached by Sidney freakin’ Lowe.

North Carolina is joined in its limbo dance by UCLA, Connecticut, Louisville, Oklahoma, Arizona and Indiana. How Lowe can you go?

This isn’t an indictment on Sidney Lowe. It’s not an indictment on Roy Williams, either. Or Ben Howland, Rick Pitino, Jeff Capel or any of those other coaches. These men earned their jobs at their power schools for a reason. And it’s within reason that we give them a break once in a while.

Down years for a plethora of top caliber programs have led the college basketball public to a false sense of parity. Never fear, order is near. What we’re seeing is more the result of a horrendous recruiting class and a number of key losses recently, more than any sort of new world order.

Inthe world of one-and-dones and stupid NBA Draft rules, college basketball fans need to get used to the occasional down year from the perennial power. Part of the issue with constantly retooling because your stars keep leaving is, sometimes, you swing and miss. Sometimes, 18-year-olds take a little longer than   expected to pan out.

I’m sure Ater Majok and John Henson will become good players in due time for Connecticut and North Carolina, but for right now, they’re raw, thin and long. Their potential oozes. Their production is toothless.

It seems like every good recruit went to Kentucky this year. As a result, teams such as Michigan State, Duke, Purdue and West Virginia have been able to join Kentucky (and Kansas) in the elite class, thanks to a bevy of players who have been around three, maybe four, years and seem to actually have figured out what they’re doing.

Don’t worry, the next recruiting class should be a step up, and the one after that should be memorable to say the least.

Think North Carolina has some lousy guards? Help is on the way. Wait till you see Kendall Marshall and Reggie Bullock next year. Larry Drew II, your time is limited. And Ed Davis’ broken wrist? It could be a blessing in disguise, as it could force the talented center to return.

Order will be restored. Parity is fake, at least in a world where top players boost a team’s portfolio for a single year then jump ship. This is the result of a stupid rule – the elite ships will sway, but they will always return upright.

What goes down will tend to go up, in college basketball. Get used to it.

Most Improved Seniors

With that said, there’s little denying the trend this season in college basketball: Seniors (and juniors) are back with a vengeance.

I’m not talking NBA Draft studs. We haven’t seen a senior picked in the top five since Shelden Williams was inexplicably drafted fifth in 2006. We haven’t seen one in the top three since Kenyon Martin was the first pick of the worst draft of the lottery era.

That’s kind of the beauty of all this. You want stability? Recruit kids who aren’t going to be tempted by NBA millions – simply because they probably aren’t good enough to really land them.

So, let’s take a look at five seniors who have lifted their games to the point where they could potentially carry their current, college teams to new heights. The types of players whose teams needed them to take the next step after three years establishing themselves, and who actually came through.

At this point in college basketball history, very few players are dreaming about their senior years. As a result, we’ll look at why they’re still hanging around. Because really, who goes to college for FOUR years?

Player: Scottie Reynolds, point guard

Team: Villanova Wildcats (21-2, 10-1 Big East)

Senior stat line: 18.8 ppg, 3.6 apg, 1.7 spg, 40.3 3pt%.

The back story: Reynolds has scored more than 2,000 points for a Big East team that went to the Final Four last season. Either something’s wrong, or this kid’s Tyler Hansbrough. From all indications, Reynolds has considered the NBA Draft at least twice so far, after his sophomore and junior years. In doing so, he’s probably realized the scouts aren’t too crazy about him. Is he an NBA point guard? Is he just some awkward combo guard without the skills to really excel at the next level? You know who doesn’t care? Jay Wright, the Wildcats’ coach who has the fortune of boasting a senior leader who is having easily the best season of his college career. Reynolds has improved his field goal percentage dramatically (40.0 percent to 48.7 percent), shot the 3-pointer better and made the kind of “senior” plays that television analysts love to highlight, such as his clutch offensive rebound in a win against then-No. 11 Georgetown on Jan. 17. Reynolds has emerged as a true National Player of the Year candidate. Four years will do that to you. And who knows? Maybe he’s been good enough for some team to take him in the draft this year, after all that waiting.

Player: Damion James, power forward

Team: Texas Longhorns (19-5, 5-4 Big 12)

Senior stat line: 18.0 ppg, 10.9 rpg, 1.6 spg, 1.3 bpg, 41.4 3pt%.

The back story: So maybe this isn’t the best time to bring up Texas, losers of five of their last seven games. But you know what? James is having a career season. He’s a senior leader. And if he’s looking to finally get taken in the lottery, as so many predicted he would at the beginning of his sophomore season, he’s got to buckle down and lead. Yes, I’m taking this opportunity to order a directive to James: You’re a National Player of the Year candidate. Act like one. Then again, in every other manner, James has done just that. A three year starter, the senior from Nacogdoches, Texas, has come quite a ways in his four years. He’s gone from purely a rebounder with a jump shot to something of an actual star. And for a good team. Texas may not be playing like it now, but it would be foolish to not consider them among the 10 best in the nation. James is still a bit on the stiff end, but he makes up for that lack of fluidity with great fundamentals. Will he make it into the lottery? A lot of that depends on how far he can lead this talented team. But he’s posting significantly better numbers than at any other point in his college career, and I fully expect that production to continue as this season labors on.

Player: Tweety Carter, point guard

Team: Baylor Bears (18-5, 5-4 Big 12)

Senior stat line: 16.2 ppg, 6.1 apg, 1.4 spg.

The back story: Meet the most prolific high school player of all time. Carter was considered a coup signing for Scott Drew, the Baylor coach who is now known for such remarkable recruiting work. But three years into his career, Bears fans had to be wondering why they were so excited. The 5-foot-11 combo guard had proved to be little more than an inconsistent spark plug, averaging 10.6 points per game as a junior, even in extended minutes. His decision making, specifically his shot selection, was questioned consistently, and he seemed to have a disconnect to star point guard Curtis Jerrells. As Baylor headed toward the NIT last year, there was a good reason to ask whether Carter would ever get it. By the Bears’ run to the Big 12 title game, he was essentially an after thought. And the little man didn’t make matters easier on himself this year, starting the season on the bench after receiving a four-game suspension for violating team rules. Then, he came back. After 13 points in his first two games combined, Carter went on a streak of three straight with 27 per game. He and teammate LaceDarius Dunn have vaulted the Bears squarely into the NCAA Tournament picture, and it would take a meltdown and likely a major injury for the team to fall out of it. In the end, I get it. Carter’s not a world-beater. He’s too small to crack the NBA. But he’s a vicious scorer. And he’s finally showing it, at the last possible chance.

Player: Jordan Eglseder, center

Team: Northern Iowa Panthers (22-2, 13-1 Missouri Valley)

Senior stat line: 12.2 ppg, 7.7 rpg, 54.3 FG%

The back story: I firmly believe Northern Iowa’s coaching staff had no idea what it was getting when it signed Jordan Eglseder. The giant was recruited well before he was a 7-footer capable of competing for Missouri Valley Player of the Year accolades. He was inked early in high school, at a small big man camp. These are the risks you take when you’re Northern Iowa. Because sometimes, you win. And Eglseder has pushed the Panthers into doing just that. Every year with the program, he has improved tremendously, and he now has put the team in position for a fifth NCAA Tournament appearance in seven years. Last year, this was a fat giant without the stamina to remain on the court for more than five-minute intervals even as the Panthers grinded at one of the slower paces in the entire country. This season, the pace has slowed even more. Northern Iowa operates at the third-slowest rate of any team in the entire country, according to KenPom.com. Eglseder has taken it one loping, slow, long stride at a time. He’s putting up career numbers in a number of key categories, and he’s improved his fitness, even if it remains far from ideal. A 7-foot center with a soft touch and a commitment to everything his team needs from him? That’s a rare find for anyone, especially a coaching staff at a school like Northern Iowa. Eglseder was a big risk, and he’s been an even bigger find.

Player: Ishmael Smith, point guard

Team: Wake Forest Demon Deacons (17-5, 7-3 ACC)

Senior stat line: 13.2 ppg, 6.0 apg, 4.6 rpg, 1.9 spg.

The back story: Smith took two years off from relevance. You probably forgot him while you were busy fawning over that Jeff Teague guy last year. And maybe that’s what makes Smith’s rise so strange yet unsurprising. As a freshman, he was among the ACC’s best young point guards, averaging the same six assists per game he’s putting up now. But he was small, and a bit out of control. These days, with Teague having lept for the NBA after two seasons, Smith has returned to the helm and earned his due praise all over again. It’s guys like Smith who are the victims of the early entrant tango. In previous years, when coaches could count on players sticking around for three or four years, Smith likely would have held his starting job for all four years of college. In today’s game, he gets shoved to the background as a sophomore and junior, but then reminds everyone he can play as a senior. He still can’t shoot free throws (48.6 percent from the line this year), but Smith plays 36.5 minutes per game for the ACC’s most underrated team. Dark horse no more, Ish Smith is ready to run.

Others: Vanderbilt’s Jermaine Beal, Syracuse’s Andy Rautins, Wisconsin’s Trevon Hughes, Connecticut’s Stanley Robinson, Maryland’s Landon Milbourne, Marquette’s Lazar Hayward, Duke’s Jon Scheyer.

Game Notes:

From the file of weird losses: Cornell, a ranked team in the coaches’ poll, somehow fell at Penn. Why should you care about Ivy League games? Well, there’s no conference tournament, but the league could still improbably land a second seed if Cornell and Princeton split their season series and Cornell doesn’t lose any other games. … Rhode Island is the No. 12 team in the RPI, according to CollegeRPI.com. Someone explain to me why this team isn’t ranked? The Atlantic-10 is a very, very good conference this year, but it’s still treated as a mid-major. … Speaking of mid-major conferences, California asserted its reign as the only actual good team in the Pac-10 with a convincing, nationally televised win against Washington on Thursday. The Golden Bears are a good team that has re-emerged as an actual contender. The problem, unbelievably, is the question of whether they will be thoroughly tested come Tournament time. … Curious about asserting dominance? Ask New Mexico. The Lobos topped UNLV on the road Wednesday and now have avenged two of their three losses. They’ve also beaten Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Dayton and, yes, California, and that’s not even factoring in good conference wins against Brigham Young and San Diego State. If the Lobos somehow win out – and I’m not betting on it with a trip to BYU remaining – they’d be in serious consideration for a top-3 seed. … Gilbert Brown needs more touches for Pitt. … I’ll leave you with that. As always, feel free to shoot me an e-mail with comments, questions or concerns at [email protected]. Thanks, and have a good weekend.