The Final Four matchups are set. But what did we learn this past weekend?
1. Kentucky never really came together this year.
There’s such a thing as a cold shooting night, but this was a bit much. How do you hold a team without a 2-point field goal for an entire half, and trail in that half 28-26? Kentucky did that to start Sunday’s loss to West Virginia.
What was painfully obvious was that DeMarcus Cousins had unmatched size, and could pretty much operate on the block without issue. Yet the Wildcats continued to jack up the 3s, even as they missed their first 20. No exagerration. They missed 20 straight 3-pointers to start the game.
It’d be easy to argue this was the product of selfish future lottery picks, but while watching, I found myself feeling more that this was just a young team that was facing proper defensive strategy for the first time. The Mountaineers allowed Kentucky to fire, fire away. John Calipari was outcoached (again), and his players simply never felt the need to stop shooting.
Sure, John Wall played horrible defense on Joe Mazzulla. And yes, Wall and Cousins both had five turnovers in the biggest game of their college careers. But this came down to one team never really coming together. This came down to a coach looking like he never thought anyone would figure out how to beat his team.
2. Overtime kills teams.
No team to pull off an overtime win managed to win their next game. That goes for BYU, Villanova and Wake Forest in the first weekend. It goes for Kansas State, which topped Xavier in the best game of the tournament on Thursday but lost to Butler on Saturday. It even goes for Purdue, which had a four-day break between an overtime win against Texas A&M in the second round and a Friday loss to Duke in the Sweet 16.
You can brush aside the Purdue win as simply an inevitable defeat. But fatigue is clearly a factor.
I believe Butler played great defense to beat Kansas State. I also believe that, on fresh legs, Jacob Pullen and Denis Clemente would have shot better than 11 of 30 from the field. The same goes for BYU star Jimmer Fredette’s 5 of 13 performance against Kansas State the weekend prior.
But the best example is Villanova, the No. 2 seed which was taken to overtime by Robert Morris in the first round before falling in a close one to St. Mary’s in the second. The Wildcats were visibly exhausted, with the exception of freshman Maalik Wayns, by that second round game. They lacked confidence after almost getting beat by a No. 15 seed.
Basically, they were pushed to the edge by Robert Morris and then just let themselves dangle on it for the next round’s game.
3. Give Tom Izzo a good team, he’ll give you a Final Four.
Quick stat: All but one Michigan State team Izzo has coached that finished Big Ten play with a 14-4 record or better (including 13-3) has finished its year in the Final Four. That exception? Izzo’s first NCAA Tournament in 1998. That’s a truly remarkable statistic. It implies that when he has the able bodies, he essentially never fails.
Of course, I didn’t just learn that Tom Izzo is a good coach. Neither did you.
But honestly, did we learn how deep he can go this year? The man handed the ball off to a 6-foot-6 power forward nicknamed “The Dancing Bear” and told him to run point guard. And he did. And they beat a very good Maryland bunch, the best team in Northern Iowa history and a Tennessee squad that seemed to have fate on its side after a midseason legal incident.
And he did it all without his best player and team leader (Kalin Lucas).
We didn’t learn anything about Tom Izzo, but we reaffirmed our beliefs. The man defines March.
4. Lock-down defenders are just as important in college as the pros.
Butler is in the Final Four because it has two of the best defensive specialists in the country: Willie Veasley and Ronald Nored. Together, they locked down Wesley Johnson and Andy Rautins on Syracuse, then did an even better job against Kansas State’s Pullen and Clemente.
When you throw together a sexy team full of great athletes, sometimes it’s easy to forget that you need that guy who can defend anyone you put him on. Who isn’t distracted by offense and points per game and not getting enough touches. Who allows you to win.
This is particularly true in college, but take a look at the Final Four: Duke has Lance Thomas, Butler has Nored, West Virginia has Wellington Smith and Michigan State has Delvon Roe.
Every one of those guys plays significant minutes. None scores more than 6.5 points per game.
Who does Kentucky have in that role? DeAndre Liggins? Maybe, but he’s not playing enough minutes if he’s supposed to be that guy.
People tried to fit Kansas’ Brady Morningstar into that role all year, but he was never a good enough defender for that argument to be made.
Syracuse doesn’t have anyone even close to that role, which makes sense as they play a zone defense. Still, this isn’t the first time Jim Boeheim’s stubborn sticktoitiveness has hurt the Orange in March.
I’ll never forget the job then-freshman Garrett Temple did on J.J. Redick in the 2006 Sweet 16. Temple was that guy for LSU. As the years went on, Temple’s offensive role increased by necessity. He wasn’t the lock-down defender, he was forced to do everything. His defense clearly slipped, and LSU slipped even further.
5. Duke is really, really tall. And that seems to matter.
The Blue Devils are taller than ever before. They’re easily the tallest team in the Final Four, and they were probably the tallest team in the NCAA Tournament as a whole.
The Plumlee brothers and Brian Zoubek are absolute trees, and even Jon Scheyer and Kyle Singler are very tall for their positions.
Duke pulls down 14.7 offensive rebounds per game. Against Baylor in the Elite Eight, the Blue Devils snagged 22, even as the Bears were supposedly the more athletic team.
The reason this works so well to Duke’s advantage is, they’re getting the majority of their scoring from the backcourt. That frees up Zoubek and Thomas to hound the offensive boards, which allows each player to account for a rather high offensive rebounding percentage.
Those second chances can absolutely kill a team. Duke has won 15 of its last 16, and it should surprise no one that Maryland beat Duke largely by managing to rebound with them. The teams finished tied at 34 on the boards, and the Terps won the game.
What will be interesting, though, is that West Virginia happens to hog their own offensive boards, too. According to kenpom.com, West Virginia comes up with 41.9 percent of available offensive rebounds, good for second best in the country to Old Dominion. Duke finished seventh in the statistic at 40.4 percent.
The Last-Second Heave
We’re in for a great Final Four, and don’t let team names or player names fool you. These four teams have unique stories and unique talents. All four are clearly units, better as a team than individual players.
For each of the next four days, we’ll be bringing you specific team previews. So keep checking back. And as always, comments, questions and concerns can go to [email protected].
Thanks for reading.
1. Agreed…sort of. I dont
1. Agreed…sort of. I dont understand why Kentucky wouldnt isolate Patterson on the block. He’s not as physically devastating as Cousins, but he’s a better passer and can score just as well inside. He was one of the guys who DID NOT benefit from Calipari’s system, as he could go anywhere else and score 17 to 20 ppg
2. disagree a bit. I’ll take
2. disagree a bit. I’ll take the Butler game…dead legs didnt hurt Clemente and Pullen…their ego’s and lack of basketball IQ did. They took alot of bad shots, and they didnt really stop. They should have given the ball to Kelly inside and let him go to work. Every time he got the ball, good things happened. Its hard to shoot a 3 off the dribble with a hand in your face or even running off a screen with a hand in your face…its much easier to step into a shot with a clear look from a pass coming inside out. K State guards were flashy, but a bit foolish.
3. He’s unbeleiveable…such a phenomanal coach. He did get helped by the top 3 seeds losing before the Elite 8, but Izzo is one of the best college coaches in the game. Top 5 no doubt. He gets the best out of his players.
4. Agreed. Lock Down defenders are big, but also team defensive concepts. I dont think those players would consider themselves lock down defenders…theres really no such thing anymore…but Team Defensive Concepts are huge. All of the Final 4 teams play tremendous defense and have very good defensive players. I think Defense is more of a mindset than anything. All the coaches left bring a tough defensive mindset. Nobody associates Calpari with a tough defensive style, or Scott Drew as a defensive coach. These guys are known as offensive guys. Defense outlasted both of them. All the teams left, play tough hard nosed defense.
5. Duke is very tall…and their big guys are playing really well for them. Not neccessarily scoring, but I think LAnce Thomas saved Duke on Sunday. He was the unsung hero for them. How many times did Duke miss a shot, only to have Thomas grab a board, kick it out for a 3…those kind of plays are demoralizing for the other team. play 20 to 25 seconds of defense, force a miss, give up a rebound, and they hit a 3…he really changed that game. They are still vulnerable because of the lack of inside scoring, and I dont think teams can ride perimeter shooting to a championship, but they make up for it with the hustle and rebounding and defense from the big guys.
Durrell Summers
Why are scouts over looking a guy that’s shown up big in last years NCAA 2009,
now he’s performing in the role as the go to guy? The teams offensive solid leader,
this year since scoring 14pts vs New Mexico State, then Kalin went down n he added
26pts to beat Maryland, then having 21pts n earning the Midwest regions tourney
MVP, now he n the Michigans State Spartans are headed to their 2nd straight
NCAA 2009 and 2010 Final Fours!
The NBA scouts, quote to U guys “Watch Out” it’s SummerTime in the spring!
Durrell Summers, didn’t have the great Junior season, but has come though
when Coach Tom Izzo needed someone to step up n lead the Spartans run
to Indy!
Manny Harris
This Michigan Wolverine is and can be a future NBA scoring machine.
I like to wish fresh good luck, get that training in before ur NBA pre-Draft workouts!
We proud of U n make ur dreams come true.
Who should the Detroit Pistons draft with the 5th overall Pick?
I like Cousin from Kentucky!
But, trade Rip n T. Prince, get a another 2nd draft pick
take #21 SF from Wake Forest! #2 Raymar Morgan SF(MSU)
Draft best SG available in late 2nd round?