[MopgrassParticipant]

While drafting fundamentally skilled players has a track record of success (Jayson Tatum), sometimes guys with upside and lack some fundamentals are worth a look on draft day (Giannis, Kawhi Leonard). 

 

Other than the top 3 projected picks, this year’s draft has a lot of players with multiple, well developed fundamental skills: Rui, Culver, Garland, White, Hunter, Reddish, Keldon, Herro. From footwork to handles to team defense to a consistent looking  shot to using their body right so they can get to the rack to getting around picks, etc. Each of those guys can do several of those things. But I feel like, every year, guys that just need development slide further and further down the draft boards. 

 

I’m more interested to see what happens to Doumbouya, Bazley, Lecque, Hands, and even Fall. 

 

It sounds like a team might take an early chance on Doumbouya. He can barely handle the ball, but he has the strength to be solid on defense today and his 3 shot is starting to look solid. I expect him in the lottery. Lecque seems like he showed pretty well at the combine (which was needed since he didn’t have college). I expect him in the 1st round as a possible steal. I liked Hands in the combine. I like how he ran the team even if he bricked many shots. 2nd round. Fall, we’ve talked about to death. He needs to re-learn basic human movement in some ways. The fact he can move as well as he can is amazing. Big possible payoff for 15 minutes a game. End of 1st round to way later. 

 

My favorite is Bazely, yet I don’t expect him in the 1st round. Sadly. I think he has a boatload of upside. Here are my notes on him: 

 

His last nano-second decision-making is outstanding. Can score no matter what. Sees what’s happening on the floor quicker than others. Has the killer instinct. Excellent handles. Great spin moves. Can always get to the rack. Can really get up. Long arms. Knows how to use them. May be a SF/PF in the NBA, but has PG talent. Really great passer. I don’t like his shooting form much. Looks like he doesn’t know what to do with his other hand on free throws. Can reportedly use either hand at rack. 82% FT. Hit 40% from 3. Rebounds a lot. Reportedly turns the ball over and has trouble with creating in the half court (but I don’t agree with that 2nd part at all). 

 

I feel like this dude is going to get lost in the shuffle. He should be slowly groomed. Hey, maybe the Spurs find him. But I don’t feel like the NBA does much anymore to help these type of players. Even though we have a G League, they don’t groom. They have to be good Day 1. It has become a risk-free skills only league. I feel like good potential players are slipping through the cracks every year. 

 

Even if you’re skilled, you need the right publicist too. Aubrey Dawkins might not even get picked, but he’s as fundamentally talented as Rui, Culver, Garland, White, Hunter, Reddish, Keldon, Herro. 

 

Isn’t the NBA too focused on immediate gratification? Or are they just not swinging for the fences? 

 

[celtics1982Participant]

 Ceiling but also floor. Like most teams will also take a guy with a slightly lower ceiling, if his floor is way higher.

Also the team matters. You can only have so many super raw guys. Even if you don’t have any, teams built to win will find it hard to develop them. A team like the Celtics hardly get Robert Williams any minutes. They can’t add three more crazy raw guys and have a roster to win now.

So overall no I don’t think teams aren’t swinging for the fences. Guys that skip college will fall. Also this is a deep draft. Maybe not a crazy strong one at the top, yet from pick like 14 to around pick what 40? There isn’t much difference in talent.

Heck if anything I think upside gets guys overdrafted and skill drops in the draft. Like Johnson is dropping and it seems to be because he’s not an elite athlete. Where as Little is much higher, he’s way less skilled, but has that crazy upside.

[MopgrassParticipant]

I think Little is rising because his shot looked better than expected at the combine and saying he was confused about his role in college made teams think he was incorrectly utilized (while all I heard was throwing his coach under the bus). I don’t think he has that high of an upside on offense. I think he could be a stalwart on defense pretty immediately, he can be the energy guy, and if he can hit a 3, that’s all he needs. He’s a transition guy. He won’t create at all. 

I agree that we all might be sleeping on Keldon Johnson. You’re right, he doesn’t have blow by speed, but he has decent hops. I don’t remember his combine testing, but I think he’d be a liability athletically. He uses picks really well, his shot looks really good, and his shot is decent pretty much anywhere. I don’t think he’s much of a creator, but it’s the only thing he doesn’t do well. 

[ChoppyParticipant]

I like Johnson, and I hope 14 teams sleep on him. At 15 I think he will be BPA and also fit a need for the Pistons. Win win.  

[timinator1Participant]

"He is raw in just about every aspect of the game … Relies too much on insticts… Lacks fundamentals … His basketball I.Q needs work on both ends of the floor … Can lose his concentration at times… His first step isn’t as explosive as it should for a perimeter player, but it’s OK for a power forward… His decision making needs work"

[OhCanada-Participant]

 To be fair he’s been a completelly different player since that was written and he’s 18 only been playing ball since 12.

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