[OhCanada-Participant]

Well no, obviously not. At least not as a player comp between the two. However I do see alot of similarities in the two based off of how the league’s rules changed when they entered the league and what player prototypes were most effected by this. This post is less about these two players but the type of players and whether or not these perimeter oriented players are going through the same thing the bigs have in the past years.

The emergence of Stephen Curry and the NBA’s desire to put out a more entertaining brand for television contracts pushed them to slowly change the rules and phase out the post/below the rim big man around 7-5 years ago. This allowed heavy iso/perimeter players like Harden, Lilliard and Beal to really thrive. This created an issue for the post players like Monroe and Okafor and forced players like Love, Valanciunas and Kanter to change their bodies and games to adapt to the new style of play.

As three point percentages and attempts rose two points just aren’t as valuable, so one on one post ups dropped significantly. Teams also decided to target out mismatches with these big men and with more perimeter oriented players on your team it created more opportunities to take advantage of a Jahlil type player. I feel like a similar change maybe happening at the moment with your smaller perimeter guards.

Last year there was a record amount of fouls coming from shots beyond the three point line. I cant find the video I watched explaining this but it wasn’t even close. This led to the league no longer allowing players to bait defenders into the air just to jump into them. Before when contesting a shot the defender had no landing space, meaning even if he went straight up and down he would get called for a foul if he was guarding a crafty offensive player. This led to defenders veering off to the side when contesting threes or not jumping at all and even then a crafty player would just kick out his leg to draw a foul. With this out of the game alot of players that relied on it are struggling not only to generate free throw attempts but also to score in general as its allowed defenders to guard them properly and as the game intends

My question is are we going through another change throughout the league? Are we going to look back at the 2021 draft saying “well Jalen Green, Cam Thomas and James Bouknight just came into the league at the wrong time”. Imagine spending your entire life studying what makes James Harden so dangerous, mastering it and then when you make the league the rules change specifically to take that out of the game. Ouch. Unlike the case for Jahlil Okafor alot of these young guards are not at a disadvantage athletically so it is a different case altogether, as they have a much better chance to adapt to the new style of play. Yet I still see similarities.

The league that was catered to dribble heavy perimeter oriented players is now catering to players with a combination of size/agility and perimeter skills. The 6’6 and up do everything players that can switch onto multiple defenders and handle the rock are now at a premium in my opinion and is the way the league will be for the foreseeable future.

[HitsterParticipant]

Very interesting point it will make shooting ability and percentages a premium and also basketball IQ as those with the higher ones will know the best places to shoot. Also athletic ability with the few elite guys who can drive to a basket at will being a great tool to have.

With post players to really thrive in the NBA you need to be either an elite defensive guy who is worth his place on that alone or unless you are the next Shaq or near that level you do need a more finesse game and apart frpm the guys Oh Canada mentioned we have seen the likes of Griffin, Holford, Millsap etc develop 3 point ranges and/or their point abilities to extend their careers and remain in prominent roles.

[BothTeamsPlayedHard-Participant]

The NBA did the right thing in reigning in the ridiculous way in which players were getting foul calls. The line was crossed where it was no longer about manipulating a defender into making a mistake, but rather manipulating refs into giving them free points. It does also bring about an important point of discussion in that efficiency is an outcome measure, not a process measure. How games are called impacts how the games play out. The hand check rule increased scoring by about 3 points per 100 possessions across the league. Cutting out the star seeking manipulation has decreased it by 3.5 per 100. It is a bigger impact than style of play. Three of the four best teams right now- the Nets, Suns, and Bulls- take more mid-range and long twos than anyone in the league. The 1996 Bulls were more efficient in offensive and defensive rating for both the regular season and playoffs than the 2016 Warriors. The 1996 Bulls had two expansion teams that season as opposed the 5-6 expansion-level teams that tanking has brought about. Last year when he was under 300 lbs., Zion was an incredibly efficient player. Embiid and Jokic are efficient in their post ups, and probably benefitting from the league being smaller therefore making their matchups weaker. No different from Z-Bo, Al Jefferson, or Greg Monroe in year’s past. One can make the argument that their efficiency was capped because a hot 3-point shooter has the potential to be more efficient, but the list of big men who are effective inside when creating for themselves and others when passing out(vastly different from dump off kings and black holes in the post) as well as the arc is small. Okafor was drafted into a bad, tanking situation and checked out. He got out of shape, and lost the benefit of the doubt that generally comes with the investment of a high pick where you get time and opportunity. If a team isn’t invested in Okafor and doesn’t play a style that complements the players they are most invested in as well as the collective style, then he slips between the cracks. It is also not as if NBA execs are perfect in their assessments. Melo was out of the league. Jeff Green was out of the league. Derrick Rose needed a lifeline from Thibodeau to stay in the league. Guys can be left for dead before their time.

Now, bringing it to Jalen Green, James Bouknight, and Cam Thomas, they don’t have the strikes against them Okafor does. The starts to their career also aren’t overly connected to the change in how the game is called. Jalen Green will have plenty of time to try to develop. He was a streaky gunner in the G-League who didn’t really go to the line much, so it is not as if there weren’t warning signs about what he would be like in the NBA on a talent deprived team. He had three hot shooting games in the G-League, and the rest shoot 44% from the floor and 26% from three. It is the danger of a 15 game season. Cam Thomas and James Bouknight are in a very different spot because of where the Nets are relative to a title and the Hornets attempt to compete. Thomas is probably still more of a trade asset than anything else. He is a volume scorer on a team where he generally won’t have the ball. If he isn’t traded this winter, and his showcase games in the G-League really only serve to prove his volume scorer reputation, then he needs to develop his shot to be more of a threat off the ball. Bouknight was not a great shooter at UConn, and he is yet another example of workout shooting is not game shooting. When Charlotte has Ball, Rozier, and Hayward, he won’t have much of the ball. If he can’t shoot, and nobody in Charlotte defends, then he can’t really help with where his shot is at.

[Scrooge McDuckParticipant]

Great post. James Harden’s play acting is such a unique skill. I don’t imagine anyone emulating it

[Author]

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