[Stephen A. BaylessParticipant]

Obviously LaMarcus Aldridge is a legit all-star player, but for some reason I can’t shake the feeling that we’ve seen the best of him and that he won’t live up to the expectations of his next contract especially if a team expects him to be the "savior". He just had his two highest scoring and rebounding seasons so that seems absurd but I’ll explain my rationale.

For one his increased in scoring was more the result of increase team pace and individual volume than anything else. His FG% the last two years are the lowest of his career and is in the 46% range. His true shooting percentage has also decreased and was near sub 50 two years ago. Kind of low for an All-star bigman, especially considering he doesn’t take a lot of 3’s yet. He does show good increased range potential, but do you really want an all-star bigman on a max contract shooting more 3’s if he’s around league average?

On the glass his offensive rebounds rate has decreased noticeable, while his defensive rebounding rate has increased drastically. How much of that is explained by Robin Lopez, an elite offensive rebounder and below average (for his size and position) defensive rebounder. That’s neither a plus nor minus, but something that is interesting to think about.

Some of his advance stats are out of wack as well. His offensive rating has been career lows despite playing on a top rated team offense. His offensive box score plus/minus was actually negative last year and barely positive this year, and his total box score plus/minus is lower than it was from 2009-2012 (when he was legitimately underrated) and barely above 0. Those numbers are strange for a superstar on a 50-win team during his prime. 

Past two years, he has also been banged up some and you have to ask whether he lost some of his bounce. During his underrated years he was one of the leagues best lob finishers. This is reflected in his dunk totals which have decreased from 86,108,87,148 to 54, 56, 36, 27. On the flip side his midrange game at least percentage wise hasn’t shown any real increase. The past two year’s he’s shot over 55% of his shots from midrange (10ft-3ptline) and shot about 41%. That’s not bad by any means but he’s getting less than 20% of his shots at the rim now. Dirk was able to remain a star by shooting around 50% from midrange and adding 3’s at a high percentage and getting to the line more than what Aldridge does. 

In short, is Aldridge already slipping and what does it mean to each team trying to sign him? He’s entering year 10 and while I expect him to still be a very good player, I think we’ve been spoiled by Kobe, Dirk, Duncan that remained great through years 14,15,16.

[NBAexpert82Participant]

 LaMarcus Aldridge is going to be an allstar for the next 5 to 6 years and an all NBA 2nd or third teamer for the next 3 to 5 years.

 

[NBAexpert82Participant]

 LaMarcus Aldridge is going to be an allstar for the next 5 to 6 years and an all NBA 2nd or third teamer for the next 3 to 5 years.

 

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