Draft Rule Ripple Effect, Back to Reality

By Adi Joseph

For the first time in 10 years, the NBA Draft is making sense again. And everyone’s
unhappy about it.


	James Harden AP Photo

We’ve gotten to know our future top picks. It’s a weird concept,
I know – one that takes getting used to. The past two drafts deserve asterisks.
A shockwave was sent through the college basketball world when the NBA decided
to mandate one year post-high school graduation for American basketball players
before they could enter the league.

The fact
that the decision coincided with two of the most talented, prepared high school
recruiting classes in basketball history was a coincidence, but one that
captivated NCAA analysts and NBA draftnicks alike.

The
result of the high school draft market’s boom in 2001, when Kwame Brown, Tyson
Chandler and Eddie Curry were picked first, second and fourth, respectively,
absolutely shattered the way people thought of NBA Drafts. Madness ensued for a
few years. High schoolers were facing major life decisions they were not
prepared to make and NBA teams were forced to evaluate future millionaires
against inferior competition.

I support
the NBA’s decision to disallow draft entrance for players straight out of high
school. It hurt the game at all three levels, with high schoolers playing
selfishly for a contract, the NCAA suffering from a lack of talent and the NBA
forced to develop 18 year olds as both men and players. But the immediate
ripples of the decision were hardly forseen as they should have been.

The First Year

It
surprised no one that 2006 was a wasted year. Of the draft’s top five
selections, only one has proven to be anything more than a role player, No.
2-overall pick LaMarcus Aldridge.

The
talent pool was lacking and there was little to be excited about, perhaps
largely because draft analysts had become so adjusted to making bold
predictions about players who had yet played sufficient basketball to properly
be analyzed.

Players
were over-analyzed and risky picks were dug up. Bargnani’s selection at the
top, in my opinion, was as much due to the lack of buzz around the American
players as the Italian forward’s potential.

The 2006
NBA Draft produced some solid NBA players. Portland guard Brandon Roy is a
star, Memphis forward Rudy Gay is becoming one. But it will go down as the
least talented class since the attrocity that was the 2000 NBA Draft.

Not to
mention, all the draftnicks spent the year looking ahead.

The Fantastic Frosh

Greg Oden
was at least David Robinson but maybe Hakeem Olajuwon. Kevin Durant was Kevin
Garnett with George Gervin’s scoring ability. Mike Conley was the new Chris
Paul. Oh, and a gaggle of two-time defending National Champions had finally
thrown their names into the hat.

The 2007
NBA Draft will go down as one of the most exciting in league history. The ban
on high schoolers had left a class that the world had seen excel on the college
level, and suddenly, everyone was a draft expert.

The
Durant-Oden debate consumed sports culture. Even people who never cared for the
sport needed to tune into the Texas games to catch the newest craze.

Six of
the first 12 picks of the draft wound up being freshmen, eight in the first
round, total. The idea of forcing players to spend a season in college, from
the NBA scout’s perspective, was to ease gauging how good a player was by
putting him in a league of his peers, rather than the run-of-the-mill high
school opposition such stars have never struggled against.

Let’s
look at the list of just the first-round freshmen, along with their stats for
this NBA season:

1. Greg
Oden, Portland (8.3 ppg, 7.2 rpg, 1.1 bpg, 16.2 PER)

2. Kevin
Durant, Oklahoma City (38.8 mpg, 23.8 ppg, 6.2 rpg, 2.4 apg, 19.0 PER)

4. Mike
Conley, Memphis (7.4 ppg, 2.9 rpg, 3.0 apg, 11.7 PER)

8.
Brandan Wright, Golden State (7.9 ppg, 3.7 rpg, 19.0 PER)

10.
Spencer Hawes, Sacramento (11.1 ppg, 6.9 rpg, 1.6 bpg, 13.0 PER)

12.
Thaddeus Young, Philadelphia (13.2 ppg, 5.0 rpg, 12.9 PER)

19.
Javaris Crittenton, Memphis/Washington (2.2 ppg, 1.6 rpg, 1.3 apg, 8.3 PER)

21.
Daequan Cook, Miami (9.7 ppg, 2.6 rpg, 11.0 PER)

Even the
players that have been thrust into significant roles, then, have not shown the
efficiency one would expect of players in NBA rotations.

I’m not
suggesting that these players all made the wrong decisions (though Conley and
Crittenton needed more coaching at the college level, and both Young and Cook
could have improved their stocks significantly by returning). I’m simply
arguing that these players were not as ready as initially believed. The rookie
class was disappointing last season in a year where people expected,
incorrectly, freshmen would be prepared to make immediate impacts on a much
greater level than ever before, simply because the class was more talented than
previous groups of freshmen entrants.

Then it
happened again.

Depth of Class

Where the
2007 NBA Draft led to heated arguments about who should be selected first, the
2008 Draft was more of a schmorgesborg of debates, almost all of which were
centered around an incredibly deep and productive class of freshmen.

The top
of the board, Derrick Rose, Michael Beasley and O.J. Mayo, weren’t as talented
as Oden and Durant. But man, there were so many fascinating players in this
draft. What was to be made of thick, white and slightly undersized UCLA bigman
Kevin Love? Texas A&M center DeAndre Jordan had the ideal NBA body, but his
production was limited. Syracuse forward Donte Greene started so strong but
slowed so much by midseason.

Things
were confusing. Things were up in the air. But there was a lot to be talked
about. And, frankly, the group has been solid this season as freshmen. Mayo and
Rose have been solid rookie of the year candidates while many of the bigmen
have shown promise.

So What’s New Now?

Those
afforementioned freshmen classes were unbelievable — two of the best ever.

This
year, we’re back to reality in more ways than one. The aftershock of the NBA’s
decision has seemed to wear off in many ways. Perhaps because of the lower
talent level in this freshmen pool, the hype of every decent player entering
the 2009 NBA Draft has not reached the same level of previous seasons.

This
year, we get a nice draft class. One with more talent than 2000 or 2006 but
less craziness than any other year this decade. It’s a return to the 1990s NBA
Drafts, where things make sense and players are generally proven. A mix of
potential and production.

I, for
one, love it.

I know
exactly what kind of shooting guard James Harden is going to be in the NBA, and
it’s a damn good one. I can imagine Blake Griffin ripping down boards at a
ferocious level against anyone in the NBA. Hasheem Thabeet’s defensive
dominance will certainly translate to the NBA.

I’ve seen
these guys enough that I feel confident in saying that.

It’s a
feeling I hope to get used to enjoying, and I believe I will.