Greg McDermott took his seat in front of the media in Hilton Coliseum on Wednesday night and seemed to mentally exhale. Coaches often use post-game press conferences to fully decompress what they’ve just witnessed unfold in front of them, and as the Iowa State coach spoke, it became clear what he was most feeling: awe.
The Cyclones had just been comfortably handled by No. 1 Texas on their home court. Even with several of his players producing huge games, McDermott’s team could not hang. Even with a first half lead, the end result was never really in doubt. That the game finished 90-83 – the Cyclones covered an eight-point spread when Texas freshman Avery Bradley missed two free throws at the end – was largely trivial.
The fourth-year coach spent a chunk of his press conference praising his team, discussing moving forward and explaining several injuries that occurred in the 40-minute affair. But he seemed equally interested in praising the team that seemed to one-up his at every turn.
Of Bradley, who finished with 24 points, six rebounds, six assists, three steals and no turnovers on 10-of-14 shooting, McDermott said “there’s not a better guard in the league.” Center Dexter Pittman, weighing in at a listed 290 pounds, was described as an enormous, unguardable force.
And that depth. Oh, that depth.
“They’ve got four guys who would start for any team in the league, except maybe Kansas, and they’ve got them coming off the bench,” McDermott said.
Envious? Of course he is. Wouldn’t you be?
Texas, at 15-0 and atop the polls for the first time in school history, appears to be a virtually flawless basketball team. They’ve upstaged everyone they’ve played, winning by an average of just under 24 points per game.
The Longhorns have perhaps the nation’s best backcourt, even with starter Varez Ward out for the season. They’ve got an elite frontcourt, spearheaded by four 6-foot-7 versatile forwards and Pittman, the behemoth underneath.
Right now, Texas is playing like a team with no weakness. They’re deep, talented and playing a schedule that will test them as they prepare for March and April. With that said, I’m still betting against them when it matters most.
I’m betting against a team with too many chefs to stir the pot.
Who runs the point in a close game? Veteran Justin Mason? Turkish import and starter Dogus Balbay? Slick-handling J’Covan Brown, the team’s best free-throw shooter by far? Florida transfer and speedster Jai Lucas? Bradley?
Who’s down low if Pittman fouls? Do you go small, with Alexis Wangmene or Damion James at center? Do you trust mostly untested junior Matt Hill?
Who takes the big shot? Bradley, your best shooter? James, your best scorer? One of those ball-handlers?
The bottom line is, a great coach could figure this all out. Rick Barnes has never proven himself as a great coach. Barnes has melted under pressure in the past, to the point where it’s surprising Bill Simmons hasn’t created a definition for a “Rick Barnes face,” occurring when a veteran coach watches as his vastly superior roster loses to someone like Tim Floyd or John Brady. The other flaw in Texas may be its greatest strength. Time and time again, we hear experts chirping on the value of depth in the college game. Time and time again, teams with six- and seven-man rotations walk away as champions in April.
There’s nothing more valuable then five players who are better than anyone else’s five players, when it really matters. Texas has a number of really, really good five-man sets. Do they have a great one? I don’t think so.
There’s also the issue of that pesky free-throw shooting. Think the Longhorns’ 63.4 percent from the stripe as a team won’t burn them down the road? Ask John Calipari about that.
If anyone is going to burn me on this, it’s Bradley. He’s a star. He’s a top-10 pick, hands down he’s Texas’ best option on- and off-the-ball. For a 19-year-old, he’s got ridiculous, understated swagger. I don’t want the ball in Avery Bradley’s hands at the end of a game, if I’m an opposing coach.
Then again, Barnes may never get it there in the first place.
Saturday Quick Picks:
Here is where I pick Top 25 games against the spread. Gambling is still illegal for the most part, so stay safe, kids. Home team in caps, spread (as it relates to the team I picked, to make things easier to read) in parentheses.
Texas A&M (+14) over No. 1 TEXAS
No, I don’t believe there will be an upset here. I just think it’s foolish to believe a talented, well-coached Aggies team is going to get blown out in consecutive road games. Texas wins close.
No. 2 Kentucky (-10 ½) over AUBURN
Auburn, on the other hand, isn’t very talented or well-coached. Kentucky rolls BIG, even in Alabama.
No. 3 KANSAS (-21) over Texas Tech
I know, Texas Tech took a very good Missouri team to overtime. I know, Mike Singletary (no, not that Mike Singletary) and the Red Raiders have a few nice wins. They also lost by 31 at Oklahoma State.
No. 5 Syracuse (+4 ½) over No. 10 WEST VIRGINIA
Spreads are a dangerous, dangerous thing in basketball. Here’s why: This game looks like a close one. It probably will be a close one. But the free throws at the end could tip it either direction against the spread. I’ll take my chances. I think Syracuse is playing better lately.
No. 6 Purdue (-6 ½) over NORTHWESTERN
People are talking like Northwestern will make the NCAA Tournament. I’m here to burst that bubble. Someone’s got to do it every year. Purdue rolls.
Illinois (+11) over No. 7 MICHIGAN STATE
I am a devout believer in Tom Izzo – in March. In January, this is a crazy spread against an Illinois team unbeaten in Big Ten play (4-0). Expect a close one, with the Spartans pulling it out.
No. 22 Mississippi (+7 ½) over No. 9 TENNESSEE
I believe Tennessee is really good, even dismissing four players. But I’m smelling an upset here, if it’s really even that. Mississippi has a great backcourt and will exploit the undermanned Vols.
No. 12 NORTH CAROLINA (-7 ½) over No. 20 Georgia Tech
Both of these teams have lost already this week. It’s after losses that good coaching shines. Roy Williams is a good coach. Maybe not all he’s cracked up to be, but a good coach. Paul Hewitt is plain terrible.
No. 13 KANSAS STATE (-5 ½) over Colorado
Dear Lord, Denis Clemente was fired up after the Wildcats dropped their Big 12 opener. He went off on Texas A&M, and I wouldn’t be surprised if that continued against Colorado. The Buffaloes, for what it’s worth, have a rising star in Alec Burks.
No. 13 Wisconsin (+5) over OHIO STATE
I like Evan Turner. He’s a good player and seems like a nice young man. But would people please, please, PUH-LEASE stop overrating Ohio State. Wisconsin should be favored. They’ll win. Easy pick.
No. 16 PITTSBURGH (-2 ½) over Louisville
It seems surreal to me that Louisville is less talented than Pittsburgh. But it’s true. The Cardinals are a tournament team, but not a Big East contender by any strech of the imagination.
No. 17 Gonzaga (-7 ½) over SAN DIEGO
The Bulldogs/Zags will win out in the WCC. Even if they don’t, San Diego won’t be the team stopping them.
Colorado State (+20) over No. 18 BRIGHAM YOUNG
BYU will win this game. Don’t get me wrong. But unless Jimmer Fredette, their star streaky scorer, is fully healthy after a bout with mono last week (Hint: Mono takes weeks to recover from), you’ve got to think the Rams’ defense and pace will keep the margin low.
No. 20 TEMPLE (-15 ½) over Massachusetts
I’ve got a healthy amount of respect for Umass, but they’ve been struggling lately and a game in Philadelphia isn’t an easy way to cure those problems, unless it’s against Penn. It’s not.
Oklahoma State (+5 ½) over No. 22 BAYLOR
I’m a Scott Drew hypeman, but there’s no way Oklahoma State doesn’t come out fired up after an overtime loss at Oklahoma. I’m predicting the mild road upset.
No. 23 Miami (+3) over VIRGINIA
First of all, can we strike Miami from ever being allowed to be ranked again? Second, how weird is it that the ranked team is the underdog against the team that was the ACC’s second-worst last year? I generally favor good coaching, and Frank Haith doesn’t hold a candle to new Cavalier coach Tony Bennett. But I’m going against my gut here and picking the more talented Hurricanes.
No. 24 Clemson (-4) over N.C. STATE
Never pick a Sidney Lowe-coached team. Really. Just don’t do it.
Virginia Tech (+5) over No. 25 FLORIDA STATE
I’m going with the upset here. I love smooth Malcolm Delaney and big Jeff Allen. This is the type of team that will take away the importance of the Seminoles size, and a coach (Seth Greenberg) who can run circles around Leonard Hamilton.
Game Notes:
The Big East has its powers, but this season there seem to be a whole bunch of teams who can’t seem to find any reasonable consistency. How good are Providence, Seton Hall, Cincinnati, St. John’s and Marquette? Depends on the day. … It’s tough to get a read on just how good the ACC is this year. There seems to be quite a bit of talent, but several teams really struggled against good nonconference competition. … Conference USA could be setting itself up for its best run for the title in years. Tulsa, Marshall, UAB and UTEP should all be contenders. Still, my pick might just be Memphis, as boring as that is. … Speaking of good conferences, how horrible is the Pac-10 this year? There’s no way this league should get more than two bids, if even that. They’ll likely wind up with three or four, but don’t expect much come tournament time. … Butler and star forward Matt Howard have been somewhat disappointing. Any preseason Elite Eight talks are way off base now. … Remember when Chris Lowery was going to get stolen away from Southern Illinois? Not so much now. He’s got some program building to do, and quick, if he wants to keep his job at a school that should be an annual power in the Missouri Valley. … I’ll be retaking this spot with a weekly column, posted every Saturday morning. Some of you might remember I started “Inside the College Game” here more than three years ago. I’m glad to be back, and if you ever have a question for me, just e-mail me at [email protected]. You can follow me on Twitter, too, @adijoseph. Thanks for reading, come back next week.
Adi- Very good article,
Adi- Very good article, interesting read. Great point about Rick Barnes folding under pressure. Texas has consistently underperformed & disappointed in the NCAA tournament. I also agree with you depth is slightly overrated & the poor free-throw shooting could eventually hurt the Longhorns. You are looking too deep into some of these issues though:
Who runs the point in a close game? Does it really matter? Who cares who brings the ball up the court. Having a lot of quality ball handlers is not a problem.
Who’s down low if Pittman fouls? This really isn’t as big of an issue as some might think. First of all Pittman only plays 20 minutes per game. Second, he is only averaging 2.5 fouls per game. The chances of him getting into foul trouble & playing significantly less minutes than he averages is very very slim. If it does happen Texas has plenty of options with Damion James, Gary Johnson, Matt Hill, Wangmene, & Clint Chapman.
Who takes the big shot? Once again, does it really matter? Texas is loaded with scorers. The startegy should be simple…whoever is open takes the shot. They have a great mix of wing, guard, & low post scorers.
Texas has been the best team I’ve seen all year. I’m not saying they will win it all (depends on the match-ups in the tourney) but I wouldn’t bet against them.
You didn’t do too well on your picks but picking against the spread is extremely difficult. Even the best handicappers in the world on a good day would only get about 60-65% correct if they picked that many games. It is just too many factors involved. It is hard to predict when a team will have a "let down". Plus you have to wonder when a game could be "rigged". Vegas is in business for a reason.
As a huge college basketball fan I look forward to reading "Inside the College Game" next week.
Gator,I disagree with the
Gator,
I disagree with the point about Pittman. His minutes are low because they’ve been blowing everyone out. In the Longhorns’ few "close" games, he’s played at least 25 minutes. And those "close" games really weren’t that close. I’m guessing he’s in for 30 minute slots against the best teams.
It’s also a bigger problem against a team like Kansas, with a stable of guys taller than anyone but Pittman that the Longhorns regularly use.
Also, with regards to the point guard situation, I think it does matter. I’m not asking who will bring the ball down the court, I’m asking who will take or create the big shots in a close game. Every one of their ball handlers has serious flaws.
I do agree about the picks. Not sure if I’m going to bring them back next week because picking on the spread is so arbitrary. Maybe just a few upset picks every week.
Thanks for reading and the feedback!
Fair enough… I can agree
Fair enough… I can agree that Texas will likely need Pittman to play 28-30 minutes against the elite teams like Kentucky & Kansas. As far as who can create shots from the guards, I’m guessing that will be Bradley. Is Bradley clutch though like John Wall towards the end of games?.. I’m not sure. It will be fun to watch come tournament time.
Maybe you should watch some
Maybe you should watch some more Buckeye basketball before calling them overrated, yo.
I’ve been swayed by Ohio
I’ve been swayed by Ohio State’s recent performances. I was wrong. Expect something about the Buckeyes in next week’s column.