[dudo670Participant]

 I get every year, everyone in the media and fans love to say that player X is going to be the next great one, because that’s what people like to do. However, I’m skeptical of Zion. He can’t shoot unless he’s wide open and stationary, he can’t dribble, and he’s only 6’7". Do you really think he’s going to get all these easy dunks and layups against NBA players? Subtract 6 inches from Tacko Fall, and add 3x the skill, and you get the elite NBA big guys (Embiid, Gobert, Whiteside, Horford etc.). Do you really think he’s going to be able to dominate the pros like he does college? Too small to be a big but not skilled enough to be a perimeter player.

Also, while he gets a lot of blocks and steals, I’m skeptical of just how good a defensive player he will be in the NBA. Who does he guard? A big guy like Embiid will dominate him with his size. Is he quick enough to stay in front of a Paul George or Kawhi Leonard, let alone a guy like Durant?

I’m not saying he won’t be a good player (he will), but I don’t see a franchise changing talent in him. There’s a big difference between "good enough to elevate your team to the playoffs" and "good enough to build a championship team around."

Thoughts?

[draftmangtParticipant]

Well for one I’m pretty sure Zion is going to be a forward at the next level so he’s not going to be matched up with elite 7 footers and even if he was the is zero chance those guys would be able to guard him outside the paint he too expensive. Also disagree that he can’t dribble while he isn’t Kyrie I think he handles the ball well for a player his size and he’s only going to get better. He might not be as efficient in the half court as he is in college to start off but he’s going to be a beast on the offensive glass and a nightmare in transition. Wouldn’t be shocked to see him put 20 and 10 as a rookie on a bad team.

I think he’ll be fine defensively, definitely has but the strength and quickness to most PFs and due to the athleticism and instincts he’s shown already he’s going to be a good weak side shot blocker

 

[dudo670Participant]

I wouldn’t be surprised to see teams like Philly or Boston put their starting center on him (Embiid or Horford) and give him plenty of space and dare him to shoot, similar to what teams have done against the Sixers with Simmons or Bucks with Giannis. Even if he’s a forward, without a floor spacing 5 man, teams are going to have their centers help his primary defender on drives.

I watched him play both NCAA tournament games this weekend, and I saw him lose the ball driving into the lane quite a few times, sometimes without a guy even poking the ball lose. Sure, he’s not a complete non ball-handler, but when you factor in that it’s college and the defenders will be 3x as good in the NBA, I think he’ll be a below average ball-handler for NBA standards next year.

Sure, he might put up 20-10 as a rookie and maybe better for his career. But the goal of the game is to win and I don’t see him being an impactor in the highest degree like the media wants you to think he will be. He’s a good weakside shot blocker in college but so were a lot of guys.

Not saying he won’t be good. But a franchise changing, tank worthy player? Not seeing it.

[Insane13Participant]

 Everyone’s wants to compare players who they think can’t shoot to Giannis and Simmons but don’t realize when they were Zions age they didn’t even attempt 3 pointers at all . He’s head and shoulders above both of them in shooting at the same points of their careers. When UCF left he open he isn’t arradi to shoot those shots and actually made them oppose to Simmons who still hasn’t made a 3 and Giannis who is just now starting to experiment with it . Remember Zion is only 19 they are both mutli year NBA players. Gurantee he’ll make more 3’s then both of them combined in his rookie year compared to both of their whole careers so far .

[ChrispyParticipant]

 He will be drafted as an 18 yr old. Beast.

[Kwame33Participant]

“Gurantee he’ll make more 3’s then both of them combined in his rookie year compared to both of their whole careers so far.”

Lmao hold your horses, bub. Giannis has 212 made threes so far. I’m willing to bet my children he doesn’t hit 3 threes a game next year. Hell, I’ll bet he doesn’t get that in two years.

 

[KIP BallerParticipant]

Your thoughts are pretty  much in line with my thinking. I can see him having a Blake Griffin type impact to a franchise. He will sell tickets, he will make highlight plays, he will put of stats but he doesn’t quite have the talent tragectory to be the best player on a championship team. I think he will be able to guard 4’s with the ability to switch for short periods on 5’s and 3’s. Right now he looks like a stronger Shawn Marion (by about 70 lbs). If he can develop a 3 and mid range pull-up off the bounce  then he will become a superstar but that is a big leap. With that being said, I think you take him 1st overall.

[Memphis MadnessParticipant]

 If dude can go through Tacko Fall for the #AND1 he can pretty much go through ANYBODY.

He also hit a few 3’s and hauled in a bunch of boards.  Plus the obligatory nifty bounce pass for a layup.

[Dazzling Dunks and Basketball BloopersParticipant]

You make some valid points. I don’t think he will be able to be a dominant player at the next level based purely on athleticism alone like he is in college. A lot will depend on how his skill set develops once he gets into the league. The 24-25 year old Zion might be a much different player than the 19 year old version.

Although his athletic advantages won’t be quite as pronounced in the nba, I think he’ll benefit from being surrounded by better shooters and having the floor more spaced. He has better court vision and passing ability than he was able to showcase at duke this season, and the the thought of him grabbing boards and pushing the ball in transition is terrifying at any level of basketball. The jump shot may or may not develop. But even if he only becomes a serviceable outside shooter, he is so hard to stop attacking the basket that he could still be a dominant player in spite of it, especially if he improves his ball-handling. 

Although he doesn’t necessarily have great length, his instincts and timing on the defensive end are good and he has the mobility to cover a lot of ground and stay with smaller players. I don’t even think hes in great shape yet. If he improves his overall conditioning, I think it would greatly increase his defensive impact. 

My main concern with him, being that big and bouncy, is if he will be able to avoid injuries. I’m still not convinced he’s necessarily a franchise altering talent but there’s no way I’m passing up on him at number one in this draft.

 

 

  

[Memphis MadnessParticipant]

 Anybody wanna see my Lottery Big Board?

[holefillers1Participant]

More than next years H.S. Slam Dunk Contest 

[pjlaw10Participant]

 All year it has been a Zion lovefest from every major news outlet to the majority of the posters on this message board. Now all of a sudden, everyone wants to about face and say they don’t see what’s so special about him. The same things everyone is saying now, is the same stuff that was said about his transition from HS to college. "He won’t be able to dominate games against the ACC the same way he does these private school teenagers." They were proven wrong. What makes you think a kid that is 18 years old won’t be able to develop the skills necessary to be a dominant player in the league? Admittedly, I am a diehard Duke fan and haven’t missed a game in years, and I can tell you that Zion’s motor and will to win are attributes that are transferrable across any level of basketball. His athleticism is second to those two things in my opinion because even if his athleticism starts to regress, he’s still going to be the hardest worker on the court. He can absolutely guard almost all 3’s and 4’s in the league outside of the unicorns that no one else can guard either. 

[dudo670Participant]

I get that he probably had the same concerns coming out of college, and he dominated guys in college. But how many guys did he really go up against who were NBA level players? Most big guys on teams top off around 6-8 or 6-9, with some rare teams having guys who are taller. I didn’t see much in his offensive arsenal besides bullying smaller guys to the basket or hitting wide open 3s with his feet set because teams didn’t want to give up the drive. Well, first, the NBA 3 pointer is a few feet farther back, and he only shot a tad over 65% from the line. He doesn’t have much of a post game and he can’t dribble that well either. In college his ball-handling deficiencies were masked by his superior athletic ability, but they will be exposed in the NBA. 

You say he "can" guard almost all 3s and 4s, and maybe he can, but it remains to be seen how successful he will be at doing so. I wasn’t that impressed by his on-ball defense. He makes a lot of highlight reel plays via help defense and while those plays are nice, many times he got beat. Yesterday, at least twice Nick Ward backed him down and got off an easy jump hook only to miss. Guys in the NBA aren’t going to be missing those easy looks. I think Zion gambles for steals and blocks a lot at the detriment of his team’s overall defense. Duke was great on defense partially this year because they started 4 guys over 6’7" and were athletic and pressed, forcing lots of turnovers. From what I saw, Zion elevated them more on offense because of his ability to get easy baskets.

Like I said in OP, will he be a good player? Yeah, probably. Probably good enough to average 20-10. Is he changing a franchise’s fortunates. I’d say almost probably not. There’s just not that many guys at that level to begin with and I’m not seeing the total package with him.

[MkadozaParticipant]

 I’m pretty sure there are very few players who can guard George, Kawhi or Durant. I think Zion’s match up issues are over blown, especially if hes giving you the point and rebounds most people expect. 

Zion may never be a top 25 player in the league. He may never be good enough to be the best player on a championship team. His jumpshot may never evolve. He may settle into a 18-9 with a smattering of stats like a steal, a three, a block, a Shareef Abdur Rahim/Antwan Jamison type of impact player (impact to winning, not playsyle similarities) .

But, he could be dominant. He could work on his footwork on the perimeter, follow a strict diet to maximize his body, get a more than reliable three pointer, and continue to work on his ball handling. He could average 24-11-5 and 1.5 blocks and steals. He could galvanize a franchise and a city with his athleticism, hustle and personality. He could be the face of the NBA. Even if he isnt the best, he could be the most recognizable. 

Not to mention, I think some players in the league would love to play with the hype train that is Zion, because he’s clearly a dominant role player right now. He’ll come to the league and start with putbacks, strong rebounding, ball movement, weak side defense and a great attitude. Oh, and stadium destroying dunks.  

He’s already a household name. How, as an organization, could you literally pass up a gold mine, on and off the court?

[mowestenParticipant]

 Ben Simmons has shown you don’t to be able to shoot a lick to be an effective player in the modern game. Th thing is the court is spread out, teams are in a race to play msll, the defensive minded 4s are almost all out the league, guys like Rodman, Oakley, Theo Ratliff, PJ Brown, etc., and have been replaced with guys who used to be 3s, the Morris twins, and there just isn’t as much resisance in the lane.

If he were in the league 25 years ago, I might say he could struggle against a Ewing, Oakley, Smith, Mason front line. But he’s too quick for an NBA 5 and he’ll overpower most 4s in the league today.

I think he will likely be some version of Griffin, Simmons and Julius Randle if their games were combined.

If he stays healthy, I think he eventually is among the best players in the league. I just don’t see him staying healthy.

[OhCanada-Participant]

 How can anyone question this kids talent? Guys that dominate as freshmen do well this wont change with Zion.

[The GoatParticipant]

Zion is great to watch, but I’ve repeatedly said I have fears of his ability to translate to the NBA and concerns a serious injury that affects his vert would leave him without NBA level skills to succeed as a 6’7 big. The marketing hype and potential is there so it would be a ballsy GM to pass on him at 1. You could get a ton in a trade if you didn’t want him.

What I would like to see now is some kind of substance to our scouts opinions. Has anyone got the threads from about a month prior to the last few drafts where everyone was giving their take on how players would turn out? I’d be interested to go over these. Sort the ladies from the ladyboys.

[OhCanada-Participant]

 Ill be sure to bring this one up when Zion is killing it in the NBA.

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