Early 2009-10 NCAA RankingsBy: Adi Joseph

We can finally stop speculating.

Well, that’s not true at all. But Thursday, the NBA released an official list
of the early entrants to its upcoming draft. And as a result, the NCAA basketball
scene for 2009-10 is looking a whole heck of a lot more approachable at this point.

So it’s time for some pre-preseason rankings for you to chomp on as you watch
the NBA Playoffs.

Now, it’s important to keep in mind that players have until June 15 to officially
pull their names out of the NBA Draft. At that point, I’ll make sure to have a
revised set of preseason rankings because I’m sure they’ll be necessary. This
list, though, will be going on the idea that every player currently entered into
the draft will stay in it.

It’s also worth noting several big-name recruits – none of more significance than
point guard John Wall – have yet to declare where they will be going to school.
That should make for some major waves by June, as well.

	Sherron Collins and Cole Aldrich

1. Kansas Jayhawks
Last season: 27-8 (14-2 Big 12), Sweet 16
Key returnees: PG Sherron Collins (18.9 ppg, 5.0 apg), C Cole Aldrich (14.9 ppg,
11.1 rpg, 2.7 bpg)
Key additions: SG Xavier Henry, SF Thomas Robinson
Key losses: None
The Prognosis: It’s that last category really boosting the Jayhawks into the driver’s
seat when it comes to figuring out who will win the national championship this
year. The returns of Collins and Aldrich, along with the late recruiting boost
from signing Henry, have the defending Big 12 regular season champs poised to
win a second national title in three years. They should be significantly deeper
and more talented this year than last, adding perhaps the best recruiting class
in the country.

2. Michigan State Spartans
Last season: 31-7 (15-3 Big Ten), National Runners-up
Key returnees: PG Kalin Lucas (14.7 ppg, 4.6 apg), SF Raymar Morgan (10.2 ppg,
5.3 ppg)
Key addition: C Derrick Nix, C Garrick Sherman
Key losses: C Goran Suton, PG Travis Walton
The Prognosis: Michigan State has a boatload of talent at the guard and forward
positions. Lucas and Morgan are joined by Durrell Summers, Chris Allen, Korie
Lucious, Draymond Green and Delvon Roe – perhaps the most talented player on the
team – to form a more than formitable opponent. That, and Morgan probably will
return. The key here is figuring out if Nix, Sherman or seldom-used reserve Tom
Herzog, a former five-star prospect, can take over the center position. Morgan,
Green and Roe will help out on the boards, but Tom Izzo may be forced to play
small a lot this year.

3. North Carolina Tar Heels
Last season: 34-4 (13-3 ACC) National Champions
Key returnees: C Ed Davis (6.7 ppg, 6.6 rpg), PF Deon Thompson (10.6 ppg, 5.7 rpg)
Key additions: Marcus Ginyard (returning from injury), PF John Henson, G Dexter Strickland, G Leslie McDonald
Key losses: C Tyler Hansbrough, PG Ty Lawson, SG Wayne Ellington, SF Danny Green
The Prognosis: A lot has changed in one season. But North Carolina is
still right there among the title contenders to no one’s surprise.
Davis and Henson are true blue-chip recruits, the types of players the
NBA thrives on. Meanwhile, Thompson and Ginyard, whose return will be
huge defensively, should provide a solid base to build on with their
experience. The season may hinge on finding a point guard. Larry Drew
III probably isn’t the answer, and it’s unclear as to whether
Strickland or McDonald can run a high-caliber college offense. Signing
Wall would make this the No. 2 team in the country.

4. West Virginia Mountaineers
Last season: 23-12 (10-8 Big East), Round of 64
Key returnees: SF Da’Sean Butler (17.1 ppg, 5.9 rpg), PF Devin Ebanks (10.5 ppg,
7.8 rpg, 2.7 apg)
Key additions: PG Joe Mazzulla (back from injury), SG Dalton Pepper
Key loss: SG Alex Ruoff
The Prognosis: Call it a hunch, but I believe we will look back at the high school
class of 2008 and say Ebanks was its best player. The versatile swingman was an
absolute rebounding machine at the end of the season last year, and he really
began to look comfortable in the system. The loss of Ruoff hurts a lot, but Mazzulla’s
return cannot be underscored. He’ll provide some of the leadership and ball-handling
missing from last year’s Mountaineers. Butler, meanwhile, will continue his role
as one of the better scorers in the Big East.

	JaJuan Johnson

5. Purdue Boilermakers
Last season: 27-10 (11-7 Big Ten), Sweet 16
Key returnees: C JaJuan Johnson (13.4 ppg, 5.6 rpg, 2.1 bpg), G E’Twaun Moore
(13.8 ppg, 4.6 rpg, 3.0 apg), F Robbie Hummel (12.5 ppg, 7.0 rpg)
Key additions: None
Key losses: C Nemanja Calasan
The Prognosis: Purdue might be bringing back as much talent as Kansas. Unfortunately,
the loss of Calasan leaves the Boilermakers even more undersized this year. Johnson
will have a heavy load to carry, but he, Hummel and Moore are talented enough
to put this team among the nation’s elite. Hummel, in particular, is an x-factor.
He’s perhaps the most talented player in the Big Ten, but injuries severely limited
him last year. If he can maintain health, he could be a force to be reckoned with
next year.

6. Duke Blue Devils
Last season: 30-7 (11-5 ACC), Sweet 16
Key returnees: PF Kyle Singler (16.5 ppg, 7.7 rpg), SG Jon Scheyer (14.9 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 2.8 apg) SG Elliot Williams
Key additions: C Mason Plumlee, F Ryan Kelly
Key losses: SG Gerald Henderson
The Prognosis: Singler and Scheyer give this team guaranteed, proven commodities.
Plumlee and Kelly are both highly rated recruits, and Plumlee, in particular,
has enormous upside. Nolan Smith should make some strides at point guard, and
even if he doesn’t, Scheyer proved he could handle those duties if need be last
season. But the guy I really like here is Elliot Williams, a rising sophomore
guard. Williams’ versatility could make replacing Henderson, perhaps the ACC’s
best player last year, a lot easier. He’s not ready for stardom yet, but there
is enough talent around him that he won’t have to be.

7. Texas Longhorns
Last season: 23-12 (9-7 Big 12), Round of 32
Key returnees: C Dexter Pittman (10.1 ppg, 5.5 rpg), F Gary Johnson (10.0 ppg,
5.3 ppg)
Key additions: G Avery Bradley, F Jordan Hamilton
Key losses: SG A.J. Abrams, PF Damion James
The Prognosis: James can still return, and that would be a big boost for this
team. At the same time, Hamilton and Johnson are the types of players who can
man either forward position, and if Pittman stays in shape, he should be an absolute
load down low. Bradley, though, is the reason I have so much confidence in this
team. He’s a high scorer and incredible defender with the potential to be a lottery
pick despite his status as a bit of a tweener.

8. Villanova Wildcats
Last season: 30-8 (13-5 Big East), Final Four
Key returnees: PG Corey Fisher (10.8 ppg, 2.8 apg), SG Corey Stokes (9.3 ppg),
SF Reggie Redding (7.1 ppg, 4.9 rpg, 3.1 apg)
Key additions: C Mouphtaou Yarou, PG Maalik Wayns, SG Dominic Cheek, PF Isaiah
Armwood
Key losses: PF Dante Cunningham, PG Scottie Reynolds, SF Dwayne Anderson
The Prognosis: I wouldn’t normally list four recruits in the "Key additions"
line. But those four guys have the potential to make or break this team. Few coaches
will rely on freshmen more than Jay Wright next season, especially if Reynolds
remains in the draft. But the upside is there, and this team could be the best
in the Big East.

	Theo Robertson

9. California Golden Bears
Last season: 22-11 (11-7 Pac-10), Round of 64
Key returnees: PG Jerome Randle (18.3 ppg, 5.0 apg), SG Patrick Christopher (14.5
ppg, 3.8 rpg), SF Theo Robertson (13.1 ppg, 48.7 3P%)
Key additions: None
Key losses: None
The Prognosis: For better or worse, Mike Montgomery is returning essentially the
same team he had last year in Berkley. But another year with this nucleus, featuring
three fearsome gunslingers on the perimeter in Randle, Christopher and Robertson,
could produce even better results. A big factor for this team will be the continued
development of Duke transfer Jamal Boykin, the team’s only hope at a low-post
game to compliment their spectacular shooting.

10. Oklahoma Sooners
Last season: 30-6 (13-3 Big 12), Elite Eight
Key returnees: SG Willie Warren (14.6 ppg, 3.1 apg), SF Tony Crocker (9.6 ppg)
Key additions: C Keith Gallon, PG Tommy Mason-Griffin, PF Andrew Fitzpatrick
Key losses: C Blake Griffin, PF Taylor Griffin, PG Austin Johnson
The Prognosis: Few teams in the country will enter this season more of a mystery
than the Sooners. Why? Well, they revolved everything around Blake Griffin last
year. Without him, other players will have to pick things up. I like Warren as
a top option offensively, and Gallon and Fitzpatrick are both nice post players.
But they’ll need Gallon to deliver on his enormous potential from Day 1 if they
hope to again seriously contend for a title. Additionally, Mason-Griffin is more
of a score-first point guard, and his adjustments to a role as a distributor are
vital.

11. Ohio State Buckeyes
Last season: 22-11 (10-8 Big Ten), Round of 64
Key returnees: F Evan Turner (17.3 ppg, 7.1 rpg, 4.0 apg), SG William Buford (11.3
ppg, 3.7 rpg), Jon Diebler (11.2 ppg, 3.6 rpg, 2.5 apg)
Key additions: None
Key loss: C B.J. Mullens
The Prognosis: With a point guard, Thad Matta’s club could be one of the top couple
teams in the country. They’ve got a boatload of talent coming back, namely the
three aforementioned wing players who are all partially responsible for ball-handling
and play-making duties. Buford’s got a lot of potential as a dynamic wing scorer,
while Turner is a do-everything swingman who keeps the team running effectively.
Bigman Dallas Lauderdale’s impact cannot be denied, either, as he grabs rebounds
and blocks shots at high rates with his unbelievable athleticism. Still, this
team could use a true point guard, and I’m not sold former JUCO transfer Jeremie
Simmons is that guy.

12. Washington Huskies
Last season: 26-9 (14-4 Pac-10), Round of 32
Key returnees: G Isaiah Thomas (15.5 ppg), SF Quincy Pondexter (12.1 ppg, 5.9
rpg)
Key additions: PG Abdul Gaddy
Key losses: PF Jon Brockman, G Justin Dentmon
The Prognosis: Gaddy provides this team with everything they needed last year.
He’s a heady playmaker who is much more of a natural point guard than Thomas or
Dentmon. His abilities should also prevent Thomas from hogging the ball too much
and get the ball into the hands of Matthew Bryan-Amaning, a London-native who
has shown developing skills in each of his first two years with the Huskies. If
Bryan-Amaning, as anticipated, steps in for Brockman this year, he and the Huskies
could be a repeat pleasant surprise nationally, with potentially better NCAA Tournament
results.

13. Butler Bulldogs
Last season: 26-6 (15-3 Horizon), Round of 64
Key returnees: PF Matt Howard (14.8 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 1.5 bpg), SF Gordon Hayward
(13.1 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 1.5 spg), PG Shelvin Mack (11.9 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 3.5 apg)
Key additions: PF Andrew Smith
Key losses: None
The Prognosis: Brad Stevens has gone 56-10 in two years at Butler. His record
speaks for itself. To top that off, the Bulldogs lost literally no one from last
year’s Horizon League champions. Howard is one of the best bigmen in the college
game, regardless of school or conference. He, Hayward and Mack create the kind
of trio that could push Butler past the Sweet 16 if they hit their stride at the
right time.

	Manny Harris

14. Michigan Wolverines
Last season: 21-14 (9-9 Big Ten), Round of 32
Key returnees: G Manny Harris (16.9 ppg, 6.8 rpg, 4.4 apg), F DeShawn Sims (15.4
ppg, 6.8 rpg)
Key additions: PG Darius Morris
Key losses: None
The Prognosis: Size is the issue here. Harris was relied on far too much in every
regard by John Beilein’s team last year. He’s a very talented and versatile player,
but he’s also not capable of single-handedly carrying a team into the Big Ten
elite. If a player like rising senior Zack Gibson, a 6-foot-10 forward, can pick
up his game, Michigan could be that elite level team next year. If not, they should
still have enough returning to make a nice run. Beilein’s system is known to help
overcome size deficiencies.

15. Tennessee Volunteers
Last season: 21-13 (10-6 SEC), Round of 64
Key returnees: PF Wayne Chism (13.7 ppg, 8.0 rpg), SF J.P. Prince (9.9 ppg, 4.2
rpg, 3.1 apg)
Key addition: PF Kenny Hall
Key loss: SF Tyler Smith
The Prognosis: Smith was the guy who pulled everything together for Tennessee
last year. But even without him, the potential is great enough the Volunteers
should be among the SEC’s elite. Swingman Scotty Hopson is really worth watching
and a second season at point guard should really help Bobby Maze lead this high-paced
ofense. Chism and Prince both have a lot to imrpove on after last year, and it
could be an exciting year for Tennessee basketball.

16. Minnesota Golden Gophers
Last season: 22-11 (9-9 Big Ten), Round of 64
Key returnees: SG Lawrence Westbrook (12.6 ppg), SF Damian Johnson (9.8 ppg, 4.2
rpg)
Key additions: SF Royce White, SF Rodney Williams
Key losses: None
The Prognosis: Tubby Smith is a really good coach, for those of you who forgot
when he was, perhaps, a little overmatched by expectations at Kentucky. Smith
brings back Lawrence Westbrook and a group of overachievers committed to defense,
which is always a recipe for success. Expect the Gophers to compete for a championship
in what might be the best conference in the country.

That’s all we’ve got for now. Check back regularly, and I’ll return with an updated
list on June 15.